059
FXUS63 KGLD 090724
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
124 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday and Monday are forecast to be near to below average in
  temperatures with highs in the 70`s and 80`s. There are a few
  chances for storms in Eastern Colorado during the evening
  hours, with a low chance for a severe storm or two on monday.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Friday or Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today is forecast to start out a bit foggy and cloudy with the low
levels remaining saturated from the recent rain and little to no dry
air advection. As long as winds remain from the east and provide a
slight upslope flow, fog should form within the next few hours by
10Z. The fog would then persist until a few hours after sunrise as
temperatures start to heat up and slight ridging helps provide
subsidence. The remainder of the day would see mostly sunny skies
and highs in the 70`s with the saturated air and slightly cooler air
mass over the area. There could be a chance for a few storms and
showers in Eastern Colorado, but the lack of forcing and slight
subsidence should keep most of the area clear.

Tonight, skies are forecast to start mostly clear with lows dropping
into the 50`s. Later in the night, low stratus clouds and fog may
begin to form again, especially over higher terrain in western
portions of the area. Low level flow is forecast to have a
southeasterly component while ample moisture remains over the area.

Tomorrow, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast in the 80`s with
sunny skies and the colder air mass pushing off to the east. The
ridging from the prior day is forecast to be short lived as a
shortwave trough is forecast to through the Northern Rockies and
help push lower surface pressure into more of the Plains. For the
daytime hours, this could allow winds to be a bit stronger around 20-
25 mph. During the evening hours, storms could develop with the
additional forcing in the region and try to push east. The forcing
still looks to be rather weak with the surface low forecast to be
broad, but the higher terrain should aid storm development. With
forecast instability and shear on the weaker side (MLCAPE around
1000 J/KG and effective shear around 20 kts), severe storms aren`t
likely, but there is a chance one or two could move through far
Eastern Colorado. Storm chances are then forecast to lower going
east and into the night with the low instability. However, the
increase in cloud cover is forecast to keep lows a bit warmer in the
upper 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper low pressure will move through the OK/TX Panhandle region
Tuesday morning, followed by high pressure building in over the Four
Corners region through mid-week all the while low pressure meanders
off the West Coast. It`s during the latter part of the work week
this upper low begins its inland progression, breaking down the
ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the area.
East-southeasterly upslope sfc-850 mb flow will draw in ample
moisture for storm development - current guidance suggests PWAT
values climb into the 1-1.75 inch range across the area for Friday.
Further details on strong to severe storm potential late in the work
week into the weekend are uncertain at this range, so continue to
monitor the forecast.

Tuesday will begin a warming trend with highs forecast in the 80s.
With ridging really getting underway mid-week, will be looking at
afternoon highs in the 90s. Temperatures late in the work week and
over the weekend drop slightly - into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Regarding shower/storm chances for the period, chances will linger
into Tuesday morning-afternoon before a drying trend thereafter - at
least until Thursday evening-night when we`ll see daily chances
return through the remainder of the long term period as the next
system nears and subsequently moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and storms are departing the area currently. Will need
to watch for the potential for a wake low developing, which if
it does will make the wind gustier than currently in the TAF;
confidence in this occurring is very low at this time but will
need to be watched given how large the MCS is that is departing
the area. The main focus will be on fog/stratus especially for
the KGLD terminal. Fairly good consensus with guidance
regarding this; the question will be if the terminal goes LIFR
both ceilings and visibilities wise. Confidence is not quite
there to get on board with LIFR at the terminal so will leave
IFR for now. As for KMCK, at this time not anticipating any
stratus or fog to impact the terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg