388
FXUS63 KGLD 041115
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (10%) for severe hail this morning
  (through 10am MT / 11am CT) as storms develop and move east
  through the area. Small hail (generally less than 0.5") and
  heavy rainfall is more likely. A few instances of localized
  flooding is possible.

- A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the
  remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday),
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Current satellite observations show a broad trough across the
Western CONUS and Rockies. Near the surface, radar shows multiple
outflow boundaries moving through the center of the CWA while the
frontal boundary remains near the northwestern portion of the area.

For this morning, the presence of all these boundaries makes for an
interesting forecast. Most guidance does have storms firing up along
the boundaries as the morning goes on. These storms would then move
slowly east and clear the area by mid morning. The question is can
there be any strong or severe storms with two main boundaries moving
through a few hours apart. Effective shear continues to be analyzed
at 20-30 kts which should hamper severe chances. But with MUCAPE
near or slightly above 2000 J/KG for most of the area, small hail
would be possible along with a 5-10% chance of reaching quarter to
half dollar sized hail. These storms could also produce heavy
rain with PWATs forecast to exceed one inch across most of the
area. The heavy rain would allow for an instance or two of
flooding. These storms will likely limit fog chances, but there
would still be a chance for some patches of dense fog behind
the storms.

The remainder of the day will initially see skies clear as the upper
trough axis swings through along with the surface front. This will
allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80`s. Cloud cover
is then expected to briefly return from the west as some mid level
moisture moves through.

Tonight, skies will clear as the mid level moistures clears out
while winds become light as the pressure gradient weakens. Lows are
forecast to drop into the upper 40`s and 50`s. Fog looks to be
unlikely with slightly lower moisture availability across the area.

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to see ridging aloft influence
the area. This will help begin to warm temperatures and keep the
area a bit drier. Wednesday is forecast to warm into the 90`s.
However, a small disturbance/front could move through the area as
the axis of the trough to the northeast swings through the Plains.
While unlikely to produce precipitation due to much drier air above
the surface (compared to recent days), this may help keep
temperatures a bit cooler for Thursday with highs forecast in the
mid to upper 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Long range guidance suggests a somewhat more active pattern in
this period. Synoptic subsidence on the western periphery of an
amplifying upper level trough over the eastern CONUS may aid in
the development of a low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over
portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and (potentially)
an influx of rich low-level moisture from the TX Gulf Coast into
portions of the Southern and Central Plains, where a synoptic
regime characterized by modest WNW-NW flow aloft will persist..
a regime in which [1] small amplitude waves on the southern
fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies may aid/enhance diurnal
convective development on the lee slopes of the central/northern
Rockies and [2] a large reservoir of instability (increasing
with eastern and southern extent) may strongly support upscale
convective growth and downstream propagation over portions of
the Central and Southern Plains. In other words, a pattern
supportive of long-lived mesoscale convective systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period, though thunderstorms are forecast to remain over or near
the terminals for the next few hours. Storms have the potential
to last all morning, but a cold front is beginning to push into
the area and move the chances for storms off to the east. Once
the storms push off, a mix of clouds and sun is forecast for the
day. Winds will shift to out of the northwest and be gusty to
around 20-25 kts at times. Winds tonight will then lower and
gradually go from NW to E to SW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...BV
AVIATION...KAK