190
FXUS63 KGLD 090634
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening, although severe parameters lessen after
  today.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Friday or Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

All severe thunderstorm watches have been allowed to either
expire or be cancelled early after coordination with the Storm
Prediction Center.

Main forecast change was to add in patchy fog to the forecast
along and west of Highway 27 where the most rainfall has fallen.
Fairly decent agreement with guidance as well with the location;
dense fog may be possible as well, depending on how quickly the
cloud cover from the MCS can exit the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting over
Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A shortwave
is forming in northern Colorado and will southeast move over the CWA
over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, force convection to
occur. We expect convection to be entering the CWA around 20-21Z.

The convection is expected to start as individual cells but around
the time they move out of Colorado, they will cluster together into
a QLCS. There is plenty of instability, around 1,500-2,500 J/kg of
MUCAPE and shear will be plentiful with 45-60 kts of effective bulk
wind shear. Hail will be the primary threat throughout western CWA,
really before it becomes a line. Hail up to 3 inches are possible
from these storms. Once the storms form into a QLCS, wind will
become the main threat over the eastern CWA. Winds up to 90 MPH will
be possible in the eastern CWA. Both the wind and hail threat
exists across the CWA, these are just the areas where each will
have a better chance to occur.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be southwest
of a line from Benkelman, NE to Lenora, KS. Storm motion looks to be
fast, with 45-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look to leave
the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

These storms will also be efficient precipitation producers. PWATS
will range from 1.2-1.6 inches, long skinny CAPE profiles are see
throughout the area, and the 0C layer is around 16,000 feet AGL.
However, the downshear velocities being so fast means that storms
will need to train in order to pose a risk for flooding. This could
easily happen this afternoon and evening, and flash flooding would
result.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, lowering ceilings, and potentially fog. This will only
allow temperatures to cool down to the upper 50s. The cloud cover
will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. High temperatures tomorrow look
to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper low pressure will move through the OK/TX Panhandle region
Tuesday morning, followed by high pressure building in over the Four
Corners region through mid-week all the while low pressure meanders
off the West Coast. It`s during the latter part of the work week
this upper low begins its inland progression, breaking down the
ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the area.
East-southeasterly upslope sfc-850 mb flow will draw in ample
moisture for storm development - current guidance suggests PWAT
values climb into the 1-1.75 inch range across the area for Friday.
Further details on strong to severe storm potential late in the work
week into the weekend are uncertain at this range, so continue to
monitor the forecast.

Tuesday will begin a warming trend with highs forecast in the 80s.
With ridging really getting underway mid-week, will be looking at
afternoon highs in the 90s. Temperatures late in the work week and
over the weekend drop slightly - into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Regarding shower/storm chances for the period, chances will linger
into Tuesday morning-afternoon before a drying trend thereafter - at
least until Thursday evening-night when we`ll see daily chances
return through the remainder of the long term period as the next
system nears and subsequently moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and storms are departing the area currently. Will need
to watch for the potential for a wake low developing, which if
it does will make the wind gustier than currently in the TAF;
confidence in this occurring is very low at this time but will
need to be watched given how large the MCS is that is departing
the area. The main focus will be on fog/stratus especially for
the KGLD terminal. Fairly good consensus with guidance
regarding this; the question will be if the terminal goes LIFR
both ceilings and visibilities wise. Confidence is not quite
there to get on board with LIFR at the terminal so will leave
IFR for now. As for KMCK, at this time not anticipating any
stratus or fog to impact the terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg