Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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500 FXUS63 KGLD 090403 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1003 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening, although severe parameters lessen after today. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with near triple digit temperatures. - Next system looks to impact the area Friday or Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Storms already forming along the Rockies front range. These storms will move east and intensify in our CWA. This has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for the northwestern portions of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting over Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A shortwave is forming in northern Colorado and will southeast move over the CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, force convection to occur. We expect convection to be entering the CWA around 20-21Z. The convection is expected to start as individual cells but around the time they move out of Colorado, they will cluster together into a QLCS. There is plenty of instability, around 1,500-2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be plentiful with 45-60 kts of effective bulk wind shear. Hail will be the primary threat throughout western CWA, really before it becomes a line. Hail up to 3 inches are possible from these storms. Once the storms form into a QLCS, wind will become the main threat over the eastern CWA. Winds up to 90 MPH will be possible in the eastern CWA. Both the wind and hail threat exists across the CWA, these are just the areas where each will have a better chance to occur. The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be southwest of a line from Benkelman, NE to Lenora, KS. Storm motion looks to be fast, with 45-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast. These storms will also be efficient precipitation producers. PWATS will range from 1.2-1.6 inches, long skinny CAPE profiles are see throughout the area, and the 0C layer is around 16,000 feet AGL. However, the downshear velocities being so fast means that storms will need to train in order to pose a risk for flooding. This could easily happen this afternoon and evening, and flash flooding would result. Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering cloud cover, lowering ceilings, and potentially fog. This will only allow temperatures to cool down to the upper 50s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. High temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 In the long term, we are looking at an upper-level ridge building into the area slowly through Saturday. Until Tuesday evening, the ridge will still be fairly weak and allows mid-level shortwaves to move through the region. The will continue our diurnal thunderstorm chances. Organized convection looks less likely during this time, but some isolated severe storms could form. After Tuesday, the ridge strengthens over the CWA and works to lower convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot temperatures and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at triple digit heat. Come Friday, we are seeing an upper-level trough cutting into the region that looks bring precipitation and cooler temperatures. This could be our next shot of well organized severe convection, but details are not clear yet and we will be keeping an eye on it. Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s through upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 956 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Showers and storms are departing the area currently. Will need to watch for the potential for a wake low developing, which if it does will make the wind gustier than currently in the TAF; confidence in this occurring is very low at this time but will need to be watched given how large the MCS is that is departing the area. The main focus will be on fog/stratus especially for the KGLD terminal. Fairly good consensus with guidance regarding this; the question will be if the terminal goes LIFR both ceilings and visibilities wise. Confidence is not quite there to get on board with LIFR at the terminal so will leave IFR for now. As for KMCK, at this time not anticipating any stratus or fog to impact the terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...CA SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Trigg