548
FXUS63 KGLD 081915
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the
  northwestern CWA due to the expectation of significant weather
  this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are expected to
  extend beyond the current Watch boundaries.

- Hail up to 3 inches, 90 MPH winds, flooding, and a brief
  tornado or two are possible with the storms tonight. The
  favored area is generally along and south of I-70 and Eastern
  Colorado, but The entire area has a chance.

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening, although severe parameters lessen after
  today.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Friday or Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Storms already forming along the Rockies front range. These
storms will move east and intensify in our CWA. This has
prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for the
northwestern portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting over
Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A shortwave
is forming in northern Colorado and will southeast move over the CWA
over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, force convection to
occur. We expect convection to be entering the CWA around 20-21Z.

The convection is expected to start as individual cells but around
the time they move out of Colorado, they will cluster together into
a QLCS. There is plenty of instability, around 1,500-2,500 J/kg of
MUCAPE and shear will be plentiful with 45-60 kts of effective bulk
wind shear. Hail will be the primary threat throughout western CWA,
really before it becomes a line. Hail up to 3 inches are possible
from these storms. Once the storms form into a QLCS, wind will
become the main threat over the eastern CWA. Winds up to 90 MPH will
be possible in the eastern CWA. Both the wind and hail threat
exists across the CWA, these are just the areas where each will
have a better chance to occur.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be southwest
of a line from Benkelman, NE to Lenora, KS. Storm motion looks to be
fast, with 45-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look to leave
the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

These storms will also be efficient precipitation producers. PWATS
will range from 1.2-1.6 inches, long skinny CAPE profiles are see
throughout the area, and the 0C layer is around 16,000 feet AGL.
However, the downshear velocities being so fast means that storms
will need to train in order to pose a risk for flooding. This could
easily happen this afternoon and evening, and flash flooding would
result.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, lowering ceilings, and potentially fog. This will only
allow temperatures to cool down to the upper 50s. The cloud cover
will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. High temperatures tomorrow look
to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

In the long term, we are looking at an upper-level ridge building
into the area slowly through Saturday. Until Tuesday evening, the
ridge will still be fairly weak and allows mid-level shortwaves to
move through the region. The will continue our diurnal thunderstorm
chances. Organized convection looks less likely during this time,
but some isolated severe storms could form.

After Tuesday, the ridge strengthens over the CWA and works to lower
convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot temperatures
and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at triple digit
heat.

Come Friday, we are seeing an upper-level trough cutting into the
region that looks bring precipitation and cooler temperatures. This
could be our next shot of well organized severe convection, but
details are not clear yet and we will be keeping an eye on it.

Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s
through upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Pockets of broken clouds are forming around KMCK that are
lowering ceilings down to around 2,500-3,000 feet AGL. These
clouds are expected to lift by 21Z, ahead of storms this
evening. The storms look to largely miss KMCK, although some
reductions in visibility can be expected as the storms roll
through.

KGLD looks to be hit head on by the storms the afternoon and
evening. Storms will start rolling into the area around 23Z and
bring heavy rain, strong winds, and hail. The TEMPO group is
more focused on the timing of when the heart of the storms will
roll through, but winds could be stronger than 45kts, confidence
is just not high enough yet to increase speeds. Behind the
storms, expect stratiform showers and then lowering ceilings.
IFR to LIFR conditions are expected, as well as some fog near
sunrise. These conditions look to improve around 16-18Z. Weaker
storm look possible tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA