950
FXUS63 KGLD 070829
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
229 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather returns Friday. Main threat is hail up to golf
  ball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH with a secondary threat
  of Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) tornadoes.

- Active weather pattern continues Saturday through Monday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Anticipating showers and storms to develop around sunrise as
isentropic lift enhances; RAP has consistently been showing this
additional lift making it to the I-70 corridor so have added
slight chance (20%) pops to include this area. These storms
should be fairly decent (albeit quick) precipitation makers; no
severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.

Did increase temperatures area wide for tomorrow with mid to
upper 90s currently forecasted as nearly all guidance other than
the NAM have increased temperatures. Do need to keep the NAM in
mind however as the moisture return is quite a bit stronger with
dew points being in the mid 60s to upper 60s; which if this
occurs temperatures won`t be as warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Early this afternoon the sky was clear as dry northwest upper level
flow persisted over the Central Plains.  A ridge was centered over
the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes Region.  At
the surface a cooler air mass was over the forecast area with light
easterly winds and a surface ridge over Nebraska.

For the rest of the day the winds will continue to be light but turn
to the south as a surface high pressure over Nebraska drifts to the
east.

Tonight light south winds are expected.  A weak upper level short
wave trough will move over Southwest Kansas during the evening into
the overnight hours.  The strongest forcing with this trough will be
over the TX/OK panhandles.  There may be some isolated storm
activity over the forecast area.  However confidence is just high
enough for these storms to occur to include them in the forecast.

Friday will be warmer than today due to the WAA from the south
winds.  During the day a dry line will setup near the CO/KS border.
By mid afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the
forecast area from the west.  There is very little to no instability
over East Central CO, so am not anticipating much for thunderstorm
coverage.  Due to the high cloud bases, strong winds may occur with
any storms that form.  As the upper level short wave trough
approaches the dry line, storm coverage may increase as well as
storm intensity.  Models indicate a line of storms should form as
the outflow boundaries form the initial storms merge together.  The
mean flow is to the east-southeast so anticipate the storm activity
to head that direction through the afternoon and evening.

Friday night storm coverage should increase before mid evening over
the eastern third of the forecast area, with lesser coverage to the
west where the lift is not as strong and the environment is more
stable.

Regarding threats initial, lone storms are supportive of hail up to
golfball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH.  However as storms merge
together the threat will shift to more of damaging wind gusts than
hail. A secondary threat will be the potential for QLCS tornadoes to
occur over the eastern half of the forecast area.  Latest data shows
the 0-3km winds are orientated in a similar direction to the mean
wind. The shear will be 30-40 kts, more than enough to support brief
tornado development for any part of the line that is perpendicular
to the 0-3 km shear.  The tornado threat will be more of a concern
during the evening when the low level winds increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Sun-Mon: A WNW-ESE elongated upper level low over the Canadian
Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) will play a
significant role with regard to the evolution of the upper level
pattern over the Northern and Central Plains late this weekend
and early next week -- as one might infer from recent /00Z/
operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF. The GFS suggests that this
feature will slowly dig SSE through the Northern Plains (Sun)
into the Central MS River Valley (Mon) -- a cooler/wetter
pattern for the Tri-State area. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
suggests that this feature will stall in Canada, leaving a
modest upper level ridge in place over the Central Plains -- a
warmer/drier pattern for the Tri-State area. With the above in
mind.. confidence in sensible weather conditions is well below
average. Steering the forecast toward climatology appears to be
the most prudent course of action at this time.

Tue-Fri: Long range guidance continues to indicate that the
main belt of mid-latitude westerlies (and majority of
progressive shortwave energy) will be relegated to higher
latitudes.. over the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies,
Dakotas and Upper Great Lakes (40-50N).. and that a stagnant
flow pattern will prevail at lower latitudes, over the Desert
Southwest, 4-Corners, central-southern Rockies and Central-
Southern Plains.. where several waves may be trapped /cut-off/
within. If the Tri-State area is indeed situated on the far
southern fringe of the westerlies, one would expect seasonable
conditions (i.e. climatology). It should be noted that increased
pattern complexity -- e.g. the presence of one or several cut-
off waves invof the southern Pacific Coast, Desert Southwest,
4-Corners, Southern Plains and/or Gulf Coast -- drastically
reduces forecast confidence.. especially at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VAD wind profiler at KGLD shows LLWS potential increasing along
with support from RAP and GFS forecast soundings so will include
for each terminal overnight. Confidence has continued to
increase in -tsra to impact the GLD terminal so have added in a
tempo for this. Southerly winds then continue through the day
before another chance of storms moves across the area. Overall
coverage continues to remain murky so have opted to go with
VCTS as any storms look to be isolated to scattered, severe
weather may be possible as well. Winds then turn to the north
behind the storms through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg