Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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856 FXUS63 KILX 091751 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30 mph could lead to blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. - Comfortable temperatures will persist through about midweek before things turn hot and humid late in the week. - Precipitation chances look slim the next 7 days, with only a few low-end chances (<20%) late in the week and weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Forecast looks on track and just a few minor updates done to sky and winds into this evening. An MCS over southern IL, southeast MO and nw TN with its convection south of I-64 will weaken as it tracks se this afternoon. Its shield of mid level clouds was as far north as I-70 with bands of cirrus clouds further north over central and northern IL up to I-88 with partly to mostly sunny skies. These mid/high clouds are forecast to decrease from north to south during the afternoon as MCS weakens and pulls away from southern IL. Forecast soundings show mixing up to around 700 mb (8-9k ft) by mid afternoon. Mixing this high up supports NW wind gusts of 25-30 mph this afternoon and early evening over ne CWA and possibly a bit higher from I-74 north. Dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60F to drop into the mid to upper 40s during mid/late afternoon. Drier air and increasing sunshine this afternoon to boost temperatures to around 80F for highs this afternoon with lower 80s over the IL river valley/western CWA. 07 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning just north of Lake Huron with northwest flow over the Midwest states. Surface ridging has started nosing into the middle Mississippi Valley and will control the weather pattern through early week, keeping things somewhat cooler than normal. Breezy northwest winds become common this afternoon as the pressure gradient becomes pinched between the encroaching high and a surface low to the northeast. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to about 700 mb developing by this afternoon, with momentum transfer winds as high as 20-30 kts. The 09.00Z HREF has high chances for wind gusts in excess of 25 mph north of a Havana to Champaign line, with probabilities dropping below 40% for 30 mph or greater. Winds of this magnitude caused issues with blowing dust late last week, and with little or no rain since then similar conditions will likely develop. Ridging amplifies over the western CONUS going into Monday with a few upper lows working to flatten the ridge as it spills into the central CONUS. Flow aloft will become more zonal by Midweek with another upper high building over the southwest US. Mid-level heights will gradually rise as this ridge gets kicked eastward going into next weekend, turning things hot and humid. Precipitation chances look rather slim the next 7 days, though upper shortwave action could push a few frontal systems through late in the week/weekend. Details on these are still far from clarity, so for now held onto the NBM`s occasional 20% precipitation chances. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are generally forecast to continue across the central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Monday. Breezy NW winds 10-15 kts and gusting 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening, to diminish to 5-10 kt after sunset, and veer north to NNE overnight. Few to scattered high cumulus clouds with 5-7k ft bases this afternoon to dissipate at sunset, while scattered cirrus clouds along I-72 push southward during mid/late afternoon. A trough axis/upper system dropping a corridor of 3 to 5k ft stratocumulus clouds southward from central WI across central IL during overnight. Probabilities for ceilings to fall into MVFR flight conditions is less than 50% as of now, with higher chances ne of BMI and CMI by dawn Monday. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$