166
FXUS64 KJAN 270755
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Today and tonight...

A line of thunderstorms will continue to push southeast across the
forecast area until mid-afternoon. Unstable air and sufficient CAPE
will continue to fuel a linear convective system and produce
damaging winds, hail up to golf ball size, and a tornado can`t be
ruled out although conditions are expected to deteriorate the
potential for tornado formation. A Marginal Risk (1/5) will
continue to exist until the mid-morning. A Tornado Watch remains in
effect for northern and western portion of the CWA until 8AM. By
the late morning, showers and storms are expected to clear out as
stable air moves in. Temperatures should heat up into the lower to
middle 90s this afternoon. This is expected to destabilize the
atmosphere enough for an isolated potential of severe storms for a
few hours this afternoon. Guidance is struggling to capture the
magnitude of this severe risk but hints at some storm development
near coast and northwards into Hwy 84 corridor. Confidence is
fairly low, but if conditions favor development, a decent core can
develop during peak heating hours. Due to this a Marginal (1/5) risk
is outlooked for this afternoon, mainly before 7 pm. By tonight,
mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with lows in
the middle to upper 60s. /AJ/


Tuesday through next Monday...

The extended period begins with a building ridge extending from
southwest Canada to to the Texas Panhandle, while a low pressure
system swings across the Mid-West into the Mid-Atlantic/New England
regions. At the lower levels, the Lower Mississippi Valley is
progged to be wedged just west of the elongated east coast trough,
which will enable northwesterly dry flow into the region. This will
promote a hot and dry airmass maximizing over the ArkLaMiss region
on Tuesday. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s,
while heat indices climb into the lower to upper 90s. By Wednesday a
mid-level shortwave will bring the chance for isolated to scattered
storms across the western and central portions of the forecast area.
This system seems to be short lived with QPF return less than 1/4".
Luckily, this shortwave is expected to bring in a cooler airmass,
which will allow for highs in the lower to upper 80s and lows in the
60s through the weekend.

The remainder of the week look to have isolated to scattered chances
of showers in storms, primarily in the west, due to mainly weak low-
level shortwaves. The next best chance for precipitation looks to be
on Saturday as a stronger shortwave moves across the southeast
region, which will generate scattered showers and storms areawide.
By Sunday and Monday, temperatures will begin warming up again and
isolated diurnal showers and storms are expected in the afternoon
hours. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Regional radars showed a line of severe storms northwest of GLH
that will spread southeast through the night an affect the
northern and cntrl TAF sites. Across the south and cntrl MS MVFR
cigs will develop and prevail through 14Z before improving to VFR.
The chance for SHRA/TSTM activity will shift to the southern TAF
sites Mon aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  68  91  68 /  30   0  10  10
Meridian      93  66  93  66 /  40  10   0   0
Vicksburg     94  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   94  70  95  68 /  50  10  10  10
Natchez       93  70  93  68 /  20  10  20  10
Greenville    91  69  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
Greenwood     91  67  91  67 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/AJ/22