021
FXUS64 KJAN 121445 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
945 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made.GOES-16
visible imagery has a few upper/mid-lvl clouds over the area but the
clouds are expected to dissipate throughout the day. Surface ridging
over the region will filter in dryer air and keep afternoon
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Today and tonight...Surface high pressure ridging and dry
northeasterly flow will prevail across the ArkLaMs today and
tonight. Highs today will mostly be in the mid to upper 80s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s./15/

Thursday through mid next week...

Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of this week into
the weekend under the influence of high pressure. Given this dry air
in place, deep boundary layer mixing will likely lead to very warm
temperatures, mid to upper 90s. By Saturday, high pressure over
Texas moves overhead and 850/925 temps around 20/26 should yield
widespread surface temperatures in the upper 90s, with some 100s
possible as well. Conditions are being monitored and a heat
advisory may eventually be needed. However, I hesitate to say this
for Saturday as dry dewpoints will tend to mitigate heat threat a
bit, despite the higher temperatures. This may change Sunday
however with greater moisture, less mixing. Despite the slightly
cooler temps Sunday, heat indices could be higher.

By Sunday, high pressure shifts east and will start to wrap moisture
back in. Given this, upper 90s near 100 temps will be confined to
northern areas where drier air is in place and better mixing is
likely. Further south across the Pine Belt, rain and storms will be
possible in the presence of better moisture as a wave pushes across.
This sets us up for a wetter week next week with greater moisture in
its wake.

Next week, high pressure shifts over the east CONUS resulting in
deep southerly flow over our area, providing a steady stream of Gulf
moisture. Tropical like moisture is possible with PWAT around 2.5
inches. With such moisture, heavy rain rates will be possible so
flash flooding could be possible if trends hold./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions and light northerly winds will continue through
the TAF period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      88  63  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     86  62  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   90  66  94  71 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       86  63  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    87  63  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     87  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/SAS20/15