210
FXUS64 KJAN 090931
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today and Tonight:

A surface high which has been over the area will continue to weaken
and shift southward as a cold front arrives from the north today.
Upper-level riding farther south over the Gulf Coast will suppress
rain chances through the day, but gradually falling heights across
the Mid-South down into northern Mississippi will allow for some
convection north of Interstate 20 by the afternoon. Pooled moisture
along the cold front and heating to the south should result in about
3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE in northern MS and southern AR. Forecast
soundings show little to no inhibition during peak heating and DCAPE
values in the 1500-1600 range. Any disturbance such as outflow from
storms to the north could trigger deep convection. Deep-layer
westerly wind shear values will be around 25-30 kts in that area, so
enough flow to help with some organization of storms if they should
develop. Various high-res guidance members provide such a solution,
with most of the storm threat pushing east into Alabama by late
evening/early tonight. Given the strong heating south of the front
and modest flow aloft, damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard with any storms though hail is possible as well. Additional
chances for some showers or storms will continue into the overnight
as the main front pushes southward.

Heating and moisture south of the front will also result in some
dangerous heat concerns across the forecast area today. Guidance has
trended higher on the dew points for today, with less deep mixing of
dry air compared to yesterday. Low 70s dew points and afternoon
temps pushing the mid 90s should result in peak heat index values
near 105 degrees, plus or minus. Expanded the Limited threat heat
outlook to cover the forecast area, but the best chances to hit 105
currently appear to be focused from around Jackson/Vicksburg and
northward into the Delta. /NF/

Monday through Saturday:

Monday, northerly flow should continue as the cold front
continues to slowly pass south/southeast through the area. We can
expect to see some lingering scattered storms across and ahead of
the frontal boundary. Storm coverage will be confined and storms
are expected to be largely sub-severe thus there will be no
outlooks for Monday. Behind the front Tuesday-Wednesday, drier
and cooler air will advect into the north and high temperatures
will dip slightly into the mid to high 80s for most of the area
with regions of the Pine Belt remaining in the low 90s. Heat
stress will be much less concerning with only areas of the Pine
Belt having max heat indices nearing 100 degrees. Rain chances
will continue through the week for the southern half of the CWA as
a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico feeds in low
level moisture to the area. Storm coverage looks to be more
isolated to scattered across the south and southeast. The end of
the long term looks to be very uncertain as guidance has struggled
to produce any persistent weather pattern but ridging across the
southeastern states looks to be the best solution. This will help
to keep the disturbance into the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, however some patchy shallow BR cannot be ruled out
around 12Z today. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected
north of Interstate 20 after 18Z, with some chance for impacts to
the northern TAF sites KGLH, KGWO, and KGTR. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  71  86  66 /  20  10  20   0
Meridian      96  71  88  64 /  20  20  20  10
Vicksburg     94  71  87  66 /  10  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   96  73  92  69 /  10  10  40  10
Natchez       93  71  88  68 /   0  10  20  10
Greenville    96  69  85  64 /  30  30  10   0
Greenwood     94  68  85  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/KP