Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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340 FXUS64 KJAN 080129 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 829 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The near term forecast is on track and no significant adjustments were necessary for the evening update. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 For the Tonight to Friday June 14th periods...Near term forecast will remain very quiet with deep layer dry air in place. Tonight will be a cool night with most areas seeing MinT in the 60-65 degree range. A few localized areas could drop into the upper 50s as rad cooling will be maximized. Saturday will be warm, but humidity will be held in check. It will be a very similar day as today. For Sunday, pattern change starts as we see the ridge begin to break down. The surface high will weaken and shift more east. As a result, lower level flow will become westerly on Sunday. When this happens, we typically see our warmest temperatures. Additionally, moisture will return and we will see Td get back into the 70-74 range. This is all occurring just ahead of a surface front as well, which also supports the peak in potential heating. Due to this, look for widespread mid 90s for MaxT. Peak heat index values look to peak around 100-103 for most areas with only a few small areas around 105. We can give it another cycle or two...but may be a time to add a threat in the HWO for "Limited" heat threat as we could see more areas peak with Heat Index values of 103-105. As for PoPs and storm chances...we look to be protected by a cap and still some decent dry air aloft, esp across our S 2/3rds. However, just to our N, there will be some moisture pooling ahead of the noted surface front and we will see a wave move into the area later on Sunday. This should help increase rain/storm chances. Guidance PoPs for us remain too low and have opted to boost chances across our N 1/3rd to better fit the scenario. Additionally, a few strong/severe storms seem possible and we could get a risk added in the next forecast cycle. Monday into Friday...The pattern will be changing some by early week as we see the more prominent ridge break down and get squashed southward. This will be due to the Great Lakes low/eastern CONUS trough that develops. This will allow for a weak front to enter the area and provide a focus for increased rain/storm chances, esp by Tue-Wed as we see a more pronounced wave that looks to develop more of a lingering shear zone aloft as energy gets caught between mid level ridge features. Due to this, guidance PoPs are best Tue-Wed and mostly for central/southern parts of the forecast area. Storm activity looks to be more of typical summer and not much potential for anything strong as lapse rates look tame due to warm mid-level temps. The rest of the week has more uncertainty as sensible weather will be driven by the position of any upper low or further lingering shear axis. the past 12 hrs there was a eastward shift in positioning...but latest data coming in maybe shifting back more west. We have time to see how this evolves and it is always a challenge to predict such an evolution, esp at days 6-7. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light wind will become southerly as we go through Saturday. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 61 91 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 60 92 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 63 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 66 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 64 93 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 62 91 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CME/EC