Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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717 FXUS64 KJAN 161825 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Today... The remnant low centered over western TN from Francine continues to be the meteorological driver for us over the short term: Today the primary topic of discussion will be a band of rain showers developing throughout the central portions of the CWA associated with the remnant lift/flow around the remnants of Francine. This low has enabled a channel of moisture to feed in from the Gulf and that will precipitate out over the forecast region today. Chances for thunder remain low for today, but an embedded thunderstorm or two in the overall showery system can not be ruled out. Rain chances look to taper off after sunset today. Leaving us with continued saturated soil conditions which will feed our potential for overnight/early morning fog for the rest of the work week. Tonight through Friday... Overall the main concern for the period will be the potential for fog development in the early morning hours each morning for the rest of the work week. This potential has been heightened due to recent rains, coupled with stable overnight conditions. Fog potential tonight is a bit challenging as we should see things shift more southward and will have to deal with some mid clouds that will limit radiational cooling. However, conditions Wednesday morning look to be more ideal across more of the area to support radiational fog. We will evaluate conditions over the next forecast cycle or two and refine this potential and overall messaging of fog/dense fog. Temperatures are forecast to be in a relatively narrow range with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Expect muggy and mild afternoons, with muggy and cooler nights. Saturday through Sunday The overall synoptic pattern will begin to shift and allow a moderate amount of drying within the low to mid levels, as dry air comes in from the Appalachians. This dry air will suppress any continued fog sufficiently to result in low risks for widespread dense fog through the remainder of the period. Dew- point depressions will be quite low though, so expect no relief from muggy nights. However, with lows bottoming out in the low 60s, early morning and overnight hours should be markedly more bearable than the muggy summer nights we`ve had the preceding months. /OAJ/86/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low CIGS are resulting in slowly improving flight categories through 18Z today but overall, morning MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to improve to MVFR/VFR through 09Z though scattered SHRA/TSRA will persist through 02Z. After that time, ceilings will have fallen across the area with patchy, intermittent fog reducing CIG/VIS to MVFR/IFR. After 15Z, conditions improve and VFR will prevail. Easterly winds prevail through the period, under 10kts through 02Z and under 5 kts thereafter. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 85 67 88 / 60 20 0 0 Meridian 66 87 64 89 / 30 10 0 0 Vicksburg 69 85 67 88 / 40 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 86 69 90 / 50 40 0 10 Natchez 68 85 68 87 / 20 30 0 10 Greenville 67 85 64 87 / 20 10 0 0 Greenwood 67 88 64 88 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/OAJ/LP