125
FXUS62 KJAX 130006
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
806 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Only minor tweaks to the forecast this evening, primarily POPs for
the rest of the night. Convection has essentially come to an end
over the area as the brisk northeasterly flow pushed the sea
breeze all the way to the Gulf coast. A few showers will be
possible along and near the coast overnight as a weak tropical low
shifts offshore to the northeast along the stalled boundary.
Otherwise, winds diminish after dark with a seasonably mild night
in store.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Elevated east to northeast winds 10-15 and gusting to 25 mph at
the coast will continue this afternoon as a stalled frontal
boundary remains across NE FL near I-10 while a weak low spirals
east northeast from central FL along I-4. Ample tropical moisture
in place around 2.00 inches in PWATs along and south of the frontal
boundary will allow for numerous showers to form as moist onshore
flow moves over strong diurnal low level instability with
numerous T`storms developing inland south of I-10 and pushing
south and west towards I-75 from Gainesville to Ocala. Some storms
may bring brief wind gusts 40-50 mph due to strong low level
instability, however not expecting severe impacts from wind as
mid level temperatures are warmer than average near -6 Celsius
and mid level lapse rates are unimpressive. Drier air north of the
front will limit chances for showers and T`storms to scattered
coverage north of the FL/GA state line with silent pops north of
Waycross where PWATs are under 1.50 inches.

Overall rainfall forecast for NE FL south of I-10 has trended down
with general amounts of a quarter to a half inch and localized
higher amounts of 1-2 inches possible in heavier thunderstorms due
to slow storm movement and high moisture levels south of a line
from Gainesville to Palatka to Palm coast where WPC still maintains
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Lighter rainfall amounts
under a quarter inch expected into SE GA. High temperatures will
be cooler at the coast in the upper 80s with low 90s west of I-95
and mid 90s west of I-75 over NE FL.

Tonight, T`storms will wane after sunset and dissipate as they
shift to the Gulf coast from I-75. Skies will remain partly to
mostly cloudy overnight from left over mid and high level debris
clouds from earlier T`storms. Showers and thunderstorms will shift
north over the local waters with scattered showers and a few
isolated T`storms moving onshore towards sunrise as the weak low
shifts towards the Gulf stream waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A front will remain stalled over north central Florida on Thursday
as a broad low pressure continues to move off the Atlantic coast.
Higher moisture content will stay in place over the Florida
peninsula allowing for numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow will keep
coastal high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with inland
highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s. The highest rainfall
totals and threat for localized flooding will be over Marion
county and southern Flagler and Putnam counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Temperatures will briefing heat back up into the mid to upper 90s
(near 100 in inland SE GA) on Saturday as the front passes to our
south, lowering precipitation chances for Georgia, however
scattered thunderstorm potential will remain over NE FL. The rest
of this period will have near normal temperatures will daily
afternoon thunderstorm chances across NE FL and most of SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

SHRA and TSRA are diminishing across the area, and breezy
conditions at area terminals will soon follow suit. A lower cloud
deck is currently affecting coastal terminals as of about 00Z,
which may cause MVFR conditions at times over the next few hours.
Isolated SHRA will also be possible at all terminals closer to the
coast overnight, with chances lower at GNV.

Breezy onshore winds will be expected once again Thursday near the
coast with gusts of 20+ knots likely by the afternoon, less breezy
inland at GNV. Diurnal convection is expected to be limited once
again Thursday, with the highest chances for TSRA being inland.
Confidence is not high enough at this time to include TSRA mention
anywhere but GNV given the lower probabilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Weak tropical low will shift offshore this evening and slowly
organize offshore of the southeast coast through the rest of
this week. See the latest NHC outlook for details on the low.
High pressure will remain to the north through this evening and
keep breezy east to northeast winds over the local waters with
showers and thunderstorms spreading northward tonight from the
northeast florida waters into the Georgia waters. A stalled
front over the waters will allow for showers and thunderstorms
over the waters through Friday. Stronger high pressure will
build south from Eastern great lakes on Saturday and push the
frontal boundary south of the local waters with decreasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light easterly winds
Saturday will become breezy on Sunday into early next week as
the high builds down the eastern seaboard and then shifts
northeast of the region next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today with breezy winds
from the east northeast. A moderate risk is expected again on
Thursday from the east to northeast onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  70  96 /  10  30  10  20
SSI  76  88  75  88 /  30  50  20  40
JAX  74  91  72  92 /  20  60  20  50
SGJ  75  88  74  88 /  30  70  40  70
GNV  73  92  70  93 /  10  80  30  70
OCF  72  90  72  91 /  30  80  50  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$