Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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439 FXUS62 KJAX 110044 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 844 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The strong to severe storms across SE GA late this afternoon have kicked off to the NE this evening and the SVR Watch has been cancelled. A few isolated strong storms still possible along the lingering outflow boundary across SE GA with gusty winds and small hail, otherwise the lingering pocket of dry airmass across most of NE FL should keep that area mostly dry with abundant mid and high clouds through most of the night. Warm overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. The lingering frontal boundary near the FL/GA border and increasing moisture from the south up the FL Peninsula should lead to local sea breezes pushing inland Tuesday afternoon and kicking off scattered storm activity for most locations with more numerous storms south of a line from Gainesville to St. Augustine where the deepest moisture will be. Not as hot as today with highs in the lower 90s for most locations, except for some middle 90s across inland areas where storms develop latest in the day. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Potential for widely scattered strong to severe storms developing over southeast Georgia this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary pressing down from out of the north with a more humid southwesterly-westerly flow moving across the forecast area. Primary threats associated with strong storms will be hail, strong winds, and possible isolated tornadoes. Potential for convection to develop along the Florida coastline in association with the east coast sea breeze which will remain pinned very close the shoreline through today due to westerly flow. Convection will become more dispersed over southeast Georgia overnight and into early Tuesday morning, however chances for showers and storms will increase over northeast Florida during this time as developments build ahead of the stalled frontal boundary. Near record level high temperatures are possible today with max temps rising into the upper 90s and possibly reaching as high as 100 degrees over inland areas with high temperatures along the coast reaching into the mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline and along the St Johns River. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will linger across the I-10 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually shifting southward into north-central FL Wednesday night. Meanwhile, trough axis over the eastern seaboard will advect mid-level drier air (PWATs < 1 in.) from the west-northwest on Tuesday. This will confine rain chances to mainly NE FL on Tuesday where the better low-level moisture (PWATs 1.5-2 in.) is and the sea breezes converge with the frontal boundary. SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will work to bring tropical moisture (PWATs ~2 in.) northward into NE FL and SE GA. Rain chances return to SE GA on Wednesday with the increase in moisture. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Unsettled and rainy pattern continues through the end of the week. The frontal boundary over north-central FL will remain stalled across north-central FL through Friday. The best moisture will be along and south of the boundary. Deeper tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) advects northward into the weekend as upper level impulses across the Gulf will lift the boundary into the I-10 corridor. Showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances across north-central FL. With the juicy airmass, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible into the weekend. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been placed by the WPC for our north central FL counties. Highs will begin in the low-mid 90s during the latter half of the week, dropping to around 90 across most of the local area by the end of the weekend. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers/storms have totally missed SSI this evening and are still south of the NE FL TAF sites, so mainly VFR conds with light W-SW winds through the overnight hours and abundant mid/high clouds which should prevent any significant fog formation at inland TAF sites. Moisture continues to increase slightly across the region for Tuesday with at least scattered showers/storms possible at all TAF sites as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and have placed PROB30 groups at all TAF sites in the 18-24Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A frontal boundary over the southeastern states will move southward, stalling over the Georgia waters tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly closer to the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters. Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening over the Georgia waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local waters from south to north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary remains stalled over our region. Prevailing onshore winds are expected late this week and into the weekend as weak low pressure potentially develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through the weekend. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights should keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches through Tuesday. Prevailing onshore winds developing on Wednesday should result in a moderate risk at area beaches by late this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 92 70 92 / 50 10 10 30 SSI 75 88 77 87 / 40 40 20 50 JAX 74 94 74 91 / 20 60 20 60 SGJ 74 92 74 90 / 20 60 30 70 GNV 72 94 72 91 / 10 70 50 80 OCF 71 90 72 90 / 40 70 50 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$