003
FXUS62 KJAX 082347
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated showers continue to fizzle out over north central Florida
this evening, with patchy shallow fog possible in the pre-dawn
hours across inland NE FL. Precipitation chances for Sunday have
dropped down to near 5-10% in the afternoon for north central
Florida as drier air intrudes the area. Another scorcher forecast
tomorrow, with high temperatures climbing into the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees with sunny skies. Most NE FL locations will see
max apparent temperatures above 100 degrees during peak heating
hours tomorrow.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening showers with a low
chance of an isolated thunderstorm will focus across our NE FL
zones along and south of a St. Augustine to Gainesville line.
There is just enough deep layer moisture (satellite derived PWAT
1.5-1.6 inches), surface instability and low level lift from the
sea, river and lake breezes across this area for diurnally
enhanced convection to form. Resultant showers/storms will drift
off to the ESE through the early evening. Dry conditions are
expected by 10 pm and through the remainder of the night. Patchy,
shallow ground fog is possible across inland NE FL where RHs will
range from 90-100% under clear skies and calm winds, especially
where rainfall occurs this afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid/upper 60s across
inland SE GA where drier air resides to the low 70s across inland
NE FL to the mid 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Surface high pressure ridge will be to the southeast Sunday, while a
trough approaches to the northeast. Drier airmass will remain in
place on Sunday, which will limit potential for convection. The
best chance for convection on Sunday will be over north central
FL, where the combination of greater moisture and a weak coastal
trough could lead to a few pop up storms. Highs Sunday will be
well above normal with readings reaching the mid to upper 90s
across the area. With the prevailing low level flow from the west
southwest the warmer air will reach all the way to the beaches,
with the sea breeze delayed to later in the afternoon. With lower
dewpoints in place, heat indices are not expected to be much
higher than temperature, so heat related headlines not expected.

Any convection that does develop over southern counties, will
diminish Sunday evening with loss of diurnal heating. The trough
will sink into southern GA Sunday night. The southwest flow will
increase moisture across the area during the overnight, but
precipitation is not expected during the overnight. Lows in the
lower 70s will be common.

The convective potential increases on Monday, due to the combination
of diurnal heating in a more favorable moisture profile, along with
trough moving to near the GA/FL line.  Scattered storms will be
expected across the area Monday afternoon. While the low level
southwest flow will limit the push of the east coast sea breeze, it
should make it in later in the afternoon. This could lead to an area
of enhanced storm coverage near the I95 corridor late in the day.
Temperatures will still be quite warm on Monday, but in general
near to a few degrees cooler than Sunday.

On Monday night, the frontal trough will remain nearly stalled
but weakening across the area. This boundary will continue to
provide the focus for convection through the night, but coverage
will decrease due to loss of diurnal heating. Lows will generally be
in the lower 70s, but a little warmer along the coast, as coastal
water temperatures have risen into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A significant change in the overall pattern is expected this period.

The weak frontal trough will move east of the region Tuesday, as a
broad low pressure system moves northward into the Gulf. The
approach of the low will increase moisture across the area. This
low is expected to linger over the Gulf into the weekend, with
pieces of energy moving east northeast across the area. As a
result, this will be a stormier than usual period, with
temperatures near to even a little below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions and light winds expected through this evening,
with potential for patchy fog impacting VQQ and GNV pre-dawn.
Confidence was not quite high enough to include MVFR restrictions
in the GNV TAF, however it remains a possibility (10-20%), will be
reevaluated with the next TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A frontal trough will move southeast toward the area this weekend,
then stall over the area as it dissipates Sunday night through
Monday. An area of low pressure will move north through the Gulf
Tuesday. This low will be in the Gulf into next weekend. A period of
small craft advisory conditions will be possible beginning on
Thursday night.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Low Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Record high temperatures at official local climate sites:

                June 8      June 9      June 10
              -----------------------------------
Jacksonville   99/1993     101/1872     100/1954
Gainesville    98/1907     99/1907      99/1899
Alma, GA       100/1993    99/1993      103/1954
Craig Airport  97/1985     97/2006      99/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  50
SSI  76  94  77  93 /   0   0   0  50
JAX  73  99  73  97 /   0   0   0  50
SGJ  76  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  50
GNV  73  98  71  96 /   0   0   0  40
OCF  73  97  72  96 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$