Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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852 FXUS62 KJAX 082306 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 706 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening showers with a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm will focus across our NE FL zones along and south of a St. Augustine to Gainesville line. There is just enough deep layer moisture (satellite derived PWAT 1.5-1.6 inches), surface instability and low level lift from the sea, river and lake breezes across this area for diurnally enhanced convection to form. Resultant showers/storms will drift off to the ESE through the early evening. Dry conditions are expected by 10 pm and through the remainder of the night. Patchy, shallow ground fog is possible across inland NE FL where RHs will range from 90-100% under clear skies and calm winds, especially where rainfall occurs this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid/upper 60s across inland SE GA where drier air resides to the low 70s across inland NE FL to the mid 70s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Surface high pressure ridge will be to the southeast Sunday, while a trough approaches to the northeast. Drier airmass will remain in place on Sunday, which will limit potential for convection. The best chance for convection on Sunday will be over north central FL, where the combination of greater moisture and a weak coastal trough could lead to a few pop up storms. Highs Sunday will be well above normal with readings reaching the mid to upper 90s across the area. With the prevailing low level flow from the west southwest the warmer air will reach all the way to the beaches, with the sea breeze delayed to later in the afternoon. With lower dewpoints in place, heat indices are not expected to be much higher than temperature, so heat related headlines not expected. Any convection that does develop over southern counties, will diminish Sunday evening with loss of diurnal heating. The trough will sink into southern GA Sunday night. The southwest flow will increase moisture across the area during the overnight, but precipitation is not expected during the overnight. Lows in the lower 70s will be common. The convective potential increases on Monday, due to the combination of diurnal heating in a more favorable moisture profile, along with trough moving to near the GA/FL line. Scattered storms will be expected across the area Monday afternoon. While the low level southwest flow will limit the push of the east coast sea breeze, it should make it in later in the afternoon. This could lead to an area of enhanced storm coverage near the I95 corridor late in the day. Temperatures will still be quite warm on Monday, but in general near to a few degrees cooler than Sunday. On Monday night, the frontal trough will remain nearly stalled but weakening across the area. This boundary will continue to provide the focus for convection through the night, but coverage will decrease due to loss of diurnal heating. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s, but a little warmer along the coast, as coastal water temperatures have risen into the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A significant change in the overall pattern is expected this period. The weak frontal trough will move east of the region Tuesday, as a broad low pressure system moves northward into the Gulf. The approach of the low will increase moisture across the area. This low is expected to linger over the Gulf into the weekend, with pieces of energy moving east northeast across the area. As a result, this will be a stormier than usual period, with temperatures near to even a little below normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions and light winds expected through this evening, with potential for patchy fog impacting VQQ and GNV pre-dawn. Confidence was not quite high enough to include MVFR restrictions in the GNV TAF, however it remains a possibility (10-20%), will be reevaluated with the next TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A frontal trough will move southeast toward the area this weekend, then stall over the area as it dissipates Sunday night through Monday. An area of low pressure will move north through the Gulf Tuesday. This low will be in the Gulf into next weekend. A period of small craft advisory conditions will be possible beginning on Thursday night. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Low Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Record high temperatures at official local climate sites: June 8 June 9 June 10 ----------------------------------- Jacksonville 99/1993 101/1872 100/1954 Gainesville 98/1907 99/1907 99/1899 Alma, GA 100/1993 99/1993 103/1954 Craig Airport 97/1985 97/2006 99/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 97 74 94 / 0 10 10 50 SSI 74 96 77 93 / 0 10 0 50 JAX 73 99 73 97 / 0 10 0 50 SGJ 76 98 74 97 / 10 10 0 50 GNV 72 97 71 96 / 0 10 0 40 OCF 73 97 72 96 / 10 10 0 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$