768
FXUS62 KJAX 072343
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
743 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon...Already have some convection that has
developed across the Big Bend and I-75 corridor of inland NE FL
which should continue to slowly spread eastward and still
expecting scattered afternoon/evening storms across the rest of
coastal NE FL, while some drier air aloft filtering in across SE
GA will keep storms more isolated there. Some isolated strong
storms still possible across NE FL where mergers take place as
well as when storms reach the pinned East Coast sea breeze front
along the I-95 corridor, with gusty winds of 40-55 mph, small
hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight...With the weakening frontal boundary sinking slowly
southward to near the FL/GA border late tonight some pre-frontal
convection will linger past sunset until the late evening hours
before mainly dry conditions develop under mostly clear skies
during the overnight hours. Slightly cooler overnight lows in the
upper 60s across inland SE GA as some drier air seeps slowly
southward, while warm overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s
expected for coastal SE GA and NE FL and Atlantic beachfront
locations will only drop into the upper 70s. Some patchy fog
possible towards sunrise across inland NE FL in the more humid
airmass as light West winds become near calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday Night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Saturday, broad ridging aloft will stretch along the Gulf coast
from the Gulf of Mexico with a weak surface high over the upper
TN river valley/southern Appalachians. Trends in models show the
cold front stalling more over NE FL before dissipating Saturday
evening as the surface ridge sinks south south and weakens near
our area. Light northwest winds will be in place along and north
of I-10 and more westerly further south into NE FL with dry,
light northwest flow aloft and sunny skies that will allow highs
to reach the upper 90s south of Waycross, mid 90s north of Waycross
and low 90s along the beaches. The drier air associated from the
surface high will lower dewpoints into the mid/upper 50s in SE GA,
low/mid 60s along the FL/GA state line and the mid/upper 60s for
most of NE FL with low 70s for the coast/north central FL areas
along and south of where the boundary stalls. As such, heat index
values will be in the 100-105 range for Marion, Alachua, Putnam,
Clay, St Johns and Flagler counties, but should remain just below
heat advisory criteria. A few T`storms may develop along the
southern St Johns river basin as light west southwest flow pushes
the Gulf seabreeze well inland across NE FL and merges with the
pinned Atlantic seabreeze situated near the immediate coast, but
not expecting severe T`storms.

Sunday, the upper ridge will shift eastward from Gulf of Mexico
to the FL peninsula as a broad longwave trough sinks south from
the Great Lakes/New England towards the OH river valley and into
the central Appalachians. This will increase heights locally and
along with westerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching from
the NNW will create very hot temperatures in the upper 90s for most
of the area even to the coast with some readings around 100 degrees
from downtown Jacksonville southward along US17 and I-95 corridors
due to the Atlantic seabreeze confined again near the coast. Heat
index values will climb to near heat advisory levels along the
St Johns river basin to the NE FL coast generally to the south of
Jacksonville ranging 104-108 degrees as dewpoints also rise a bit
compared to Saturday. Lows Sunday morning will begin in the upper
60s inland to around 70 south of I-10.

Monday, the mid to upper level troughing extending from the
interior NE states SSW down the spine of the Appalachians will
support a cold front entering SE GA by late in the day. Given
moisture levels generally below average (Precipitable Water levels
1.25 to 1.50 inches) and weak shortwave energy only expecting
Scattered T`storm chances as the Gulf seabreeze moves towards
the Atlantic coast where it will merge with the Atlantic seabreeze
closer towards I-95. Highs will be very hot with widespread upper
90s with 100 degrees dotting some locations along and east of
highway 301. Max heat index values will peak around heat advisory
criteria along and east of US 17 from Jacksonville to the NE FL
coast. Lows Monday and Tuesday morning will begin in the low to
mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beachfront.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Temperatures will be on a downward trend next week as cloud cover
increases, with highs only reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s
Wednesday and Thursday. Southwesterly flow in conjunction with a
stalled frontal boundary over our area will bring a surge of
moisture during this period (PWATs 2"+). Daily numerous showers
and thunderstorms are forecast, with higher activity in the
afternoon/evenings due to diurnal heating and sea breeze
interactions. Primary concern during this period will be heavy
rainfall for several days allowing for potential localized
flooding issues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers have mostly shifted offshore of the NE FL coast this
evening. Winds become light and variable in the next couple of
hours. Patchy MVFR fog may be possible at VQQ and GNV in the pre-
dawn hours. Both sea breezes shift inland tomorrow afternoon.
Easterly winds increase as the Atlantic coast sea breeze shifts
inland after 17Z. While westerly winds increase to around 10 kts
at GNV after 19Z. Outside of low fog potential, VFR conditions
prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Offshore winds will prevail this morning ahead of a cold front
boundary that will approach our local waters from the northwest
by this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop ahead of this boundary during the late afternoon and
evening hours, mainly across the northeast Florida waters. This
cold frontal boundary will then weaken and dissipate over our
local waters on Saturday, with a weak pressure pattern prevailing
throughout the weekend. Another frontal boundary will enter the
southeastern states on Monday, with this boundary then stalling
over our local waters during the the rest of next week. Scattered
to showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this
boundary on Monday and Monday night, followed by waves of numerous
to widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting our local waters
from Tuesday through at least Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents in effect for all
beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents for NE FL beaches
Saturday and a low risk for SE GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Scattered showers and storms are expected this evening as a cold
front moves towards the area with drier weather conditions over the
weekend. The increasing mixing heights and transport winds will
create high daytime dispersion for most inland locations Sunday,
with patchy high values Saturday. Min RH values will fall to near
critical levels this weekend following a frontal passage, with
values as low as 25-30 percent for inland locations. Moisture will
slowly return at the start of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

 FridaySaturdaySundayMonday

Jacksonville    100/1993       99/1993   101/1872100/1954
Gainesville     99/198598/190799/190799/1899
Alma, GA         98/1993100/199399/1993103/1954
Craig Airport    96/198595/202297/200699/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  95  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  75  91  75  95 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  72  96  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
SGJ  74  94  74  97 /  30  10  10  10
GNV  73  97  71  98 /  10  20  10  10
OCF  72  97  72  98 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$