Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
506 FXUS62 KJAX 071843 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 243 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon...Already have some convection that has developed across the Big Bend and I-75 corridor of inland NE FL which should continue to slowly spread eastward and still expecting scattered afternoon/evening storms across the rest of coastal NE FL, while some drier air aloft filtering in across SE GA will keep storms more isolated there. Some isolated strong storms still possible across NE FL where mergers take place as well as when storms reach the pinned East Coast sea breeze front along the I-95 corridor, with gusty winds of 40-55 mph, small hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Tonight...With the weakening frontal boundary sinking slowly southward to near the FL/GA border late tonight some pre-frontal convection will linger past sunset until the late evening hours before mainly dry conditions develop under mostly clear skies during the overnight hours. Slightly cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s across inland SE GA as some drier air seeps slowly southward, while warm overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s expected for coastal SE GA and NE FL and Atlantic beachfront locations will only drop into the upper 70s. Some patchy fog possible towards sunrise across inland NE FL in the more humid airmass as light West winds become near calm. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday Night) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Saturday, broad ridging aloft will stretch along the Gulf coast from the Gulf of Mexico with a weak surface high over the upper TN river valley/southern Appalachians. Trends in models show the cold front stalling more over NE FL before dissipating Saturday evening as the surface ridge sinks south south and weakens near our area. Light northwest winds will be in place along and north of I-10 and more westerly further south into NE FL with dry, light northwest flow aloft and sunny skies that will allow highs to reach the upper 90s south of Waycross, mid 90s north of Waycross and low 90s along the beaches. The drier air associated from the surface high will lower dewpoints into the mid/upper 50s in SE GA, low/mid 60s along the FL/GA state line and the mid/upper 60s for most of NE FL with low 70s for the coast/north central FL areas along and south of where the boundary stalls. As such, heat index values will be in the 100-105 range for Marion, Alachua, Putnam, Clay, St Johns and Flagler counties, but should remain just below heat advisory criteria. A few T`storms may develop along the southern St Johns river basin as light west southwest flow pushes the Gulf seabreeze well inland across NE FL and merges with the pinned Atlantic seabreeze situated near the immediate coast, but not expecting severe T`storms. Sunday, the upper ridge will shift eastward from Gulf of Mexico to the FL peninsula as a broad longwave trough sinks south from the Great Lakes/New England towards the OH river valley and into the central Appalachians. This will increase heights locally and along with westerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching from the NNW will create very hot temperatures in the upper 90s for most of the area even to the coast with some readings around 100 degrees from downtown Jacksonville southward along US17 and I-95 corridors due to the Atlantic seabreeze confined again near the coast. Heat index values will climb to near heat advisory levels along the St Johns river basin to the NE FL coast generally to the south of Jacksonville ranging 104-108 degrees as dewpoints also rise a bit compared to Saturday. Lows Sunday morning will begin in the upper 60s inland to around 70 south of I-10. Monday, the mid to upper level troughing extending from the interior NE states SSW down the spine of the Appalachians will support a cold front entering SE GA by late in the day. Given moisture levels generally below average (Precipitable Water levels 1.25 to 1.50 inches) and weak shortwave energy only expecting Scattered T`storm chances as the Gulf seabreeze moves towards the Atlantic coast where it will merge with the Atlantic seabreeze closer towards I-95. Highs will be very hot with widespread upper 90s with 100 degrees dotting some locations along and east of highway 301. Max heat index values will peak around heat advisory criteria along and east of US 17 from Jacksonville to the NE FL coast. Lows Monday and Tuesday morning will begin in the low to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beachfront. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Temperatures will be on a downward trend next week as cloud cover increases, with highs only reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday. Southwesterly flow in conjunction with a stalled frontal boundary over our area will bring a surge of moisture during this period (PWATs 2"+). Daily numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with higher activity in the afternoon/evenings due to diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions. Primary concern during this period will be heavy rainfall for several days allowing for potential localized flooding issues. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Convection tracking across NE FL at the moment, mainly south of the I-10 corridor and will mainly impact the SGJ TAF site and have kept TEMPO TSRA MVFR conds there, while some outflow and diurnal heating may still trigger isolated TSRA (VCTS) at the other NE FL TAF sites through 00Z, while only VCSH (isolated shower) expected at SSI through the afternoon hours. A few lingering showers are possible through the evening hours at the NE FL TAF sites and have left in VCSH in the current TAF set, then after midnight expect just a few lingering SCT clouds with some patchy MVFR fog still possible at GNV/VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame, just before sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Offshore winds will prevail this morning ahead of a cold front boundary that will approach our local waters from the northwest by this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours, mainly across the northeast Florida waters. This cold frontal boundary will then weaken and dissipate over our local waters on Saturday, with a weak pressure pattern prevailing throughout the weekend. Another frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states on Monday, with this boundary then stalling over our local waters during the the rest of next week. Scattered to showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this boundary on Monday and Monday night, followed by waves of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting our local waters from Tuesday through at least Thursday. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents in effect for all beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents for NE FL beaches Saturday and a low risk for SE GA beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected this evening as a cold front moves towards the area with drier weather conditions over the weekend. The increasing mixing heights and transport winds will create high daytime dispersion for most inland locations Sunday, with patchy high values Saturday. Min RH values will fall to near critical levels this weekend following a frontal passage, with values as low as 25-30 percent for inland locations. Moisture will slowly return at the start of next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 FridaySaturdaySundayMonday Jacksonville 100/1993 99/1993 101/1872100/1954 Gainesville 99/198598/190799/190799/1899 Alma, GA 98/1993100/199399/1993103/1954 Craig Airport 96/198595/202297/200699/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 95 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 75 91 75 95 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 72 96 71 99 / 20 10 0 10 SGJ 74 94 74 97 / 30 10 10 10 GNV 73 97 71 98 / 10 20 10 10 OCF 72 97 72 98 / 20 20 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$