Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
121 FXUS62 KKEY 101437 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A rather chill start to the day across the Florida Keys. With that stated, there is evidence that the weather is starting to stir from it`s dry season slumber. KBYX shows some small isolated showers beginning to develop across the outer Gulf waters. There was some showers in the southwestern corner of the Straits of Florida which has since dissipated. However, this earlier activity is now sending an outflow boundary northward, which could serve as the focal point for new activity to develop. We continue to see southerly flow across the island chain with speeds generally 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are in the mid to nearly upper 80s and dew points are slightly higher this morning than yesterday with mid to upper 70s. Satellited derived precipitable water shows the deep tropical moisture continues to lift northward. As of this morning, the axis of highest values is pivoting through western Cuba and just to our west. As the day progresses, this plume will slide ever closer to the Keys. As such, rain chances will be increasing, however, timing is becoming an issue. There are suggestions that the more likely start time won`t be until late afternoon or early evening. At the same, given what is starting to sprout out there now, a southward back building scenario cannot be ruled either. Given the lower confidence on timing, will maintain chance this morning becoming likely in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The pattern this week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. This will result in light to moderate southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters today. Freshening breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather may begin as early as tonight and will persist through Friday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the afternoon today, but there is still some uncertainty with respect to when shower activity is going to show up. Will keep VCSH in the TAF from 15Z onward, but it is possible that showers wont be in the vicinity until later. Once showers do develop, the should persist and remain in the forecast area, which means intermittent periods of conditions deteriorating are possible. But as stated, there is still lowered confidence with respect to timing. Near-surface southerly winds near 10 kts will prevail until showers and thunderstorms initiate, which will then lead to sustained winds of near 15 kts and gusts of near 25 kts. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1912 the daily record rainfall of 2.89" was measured at Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest