Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
777 FXUS62 KKEY 100808 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 It has been an anomalously quiet early June morning across the Florida Keys. Only a few isolated showers have been detected within the forecast area overnight, most of which were likely along the leading edge of a subtle wind surge. Winds along the Reef are currently being measured at 10 to 15 knots. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the upper 70s, so still pretty muggy even at this early hour. Last night`s sounding sampled a decent amount of dry air aloft, which has likely helped hinder shower development overnight. This drier air will quickly be replaced by this afternoon as deep tropical moisture begins to overtake the region. CIMSS MIMIC TPW highlights a large moisture plume right on our doorstep, which will gradually infiltrate the Keys. While there is still uncertainty regarding the exact evolution in the players of this weeks weather, confidence has continued to increase that a wet few days of weather is on tap for the Florida Keys. Multiple rounds of convection and the potential for widespread heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the Florida Keys in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 4) Tuesday through Thursday. Multi-day accumulations could be as high as 6-10 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible. This northerly transport of deep tropical moisture from the western Caribbean is thanks to the development of a Central American Gyre (CAG). A trough and associated frontal boundary currently extending across the Southeast this morning will stall across Northern Florida, which will keep this enhanced moisture trapped across the Gulf. This stalled front is what will help lead to a prolonged unsettled weather pattern. Surface winds will gradually increase starting tonight, however, model guidance widely varies on the exact magnitude winds will reach. Have tried to capture a middle ground in terms of winds speeds through the extended forecast, but winds could increase from the current forecast, so stay tuned for any updates. Regardless, squalls and thunderstorms will produce convective winds above the forecast sustained winds. Temperatures for the coming week will be slightly muted by cloud cover and rainfall, so highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows generally falling to near 80 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the pattern this week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. This will result in light to moderate southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters today. Freshening breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather may begin as early as tonight and will persist through Friday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions will persist at EYW and MTH early the TAF period. An environment supporting widespread showers will move over the terminals during the day which will linger through most of the week. VCSH stays in the TAF for the entire period to reflect the uncertainty on when showers will form. Showers and cloud cover are expected to increase after sunrise, reflected by more cloud cover, but determining the exact hour and location of shower initiation is too uncertain. Hi-res weather models show no consensus on when to expect showers near the terminals. Near-surface southerly winds near 10 knots will persist throughout the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2005, Tropical Storm Arlene passed west of the Florida Keys. It produced sustained winds of 45 mph and wind gusts to 55 mph in the Dry Tortugas. In Key West, wind gusts were 47 mph. Storm surge 1.35 feet above mean sea level at Key West Harbor, causing minor flooding. Wind damage to four homes occurred on Lower Matecumbe Key. Rain accumulations across the island chain were between 2 and 3 inches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 80 87 80 / 80 70 70 70 Marathon 89 81 87 80 / 70 60 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest