Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
795 FXUS62 KKEY 090223 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1023 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 What a difference twenty-four hours can make. The Storm Prediction Center`s 500 mb mesoanalysis now places the axis of a 500 mb trough east of the Florida Keys in the vicinity of the Bahamas. This has allowed the climatological mid-level ridge to regain a loose hold over the CWA this afternoon and evening. The 00z evening sounding at KEY highlighted a moist layer up to around 925 mb with relatively steep lapse rates, capped with a series of weak subsidence inversions and associated subsidence between 925 and 850 mb. KBYX has struggled to find any meteorological echo returns for most of the evening. A few showers have most recently been detected in the distant eastern Straits of Florida pushing northward, as well as a few outflow-driven showers from earlier convection near Andros Island. Another warm and muggy evening for the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. For tonight, given the aforementioned rebound of the ridge, generally weak steering flow, and a lack of many residual boundaries, elected to lower PoPs to slight levels (around 20%) for the island communities. This may very well end up being one of the driest forecast periods for the next seven days, as global deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to point towards quite a wet weak ahead. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters zones. From synopsis, the pattern will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. This will result in light to gentle southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters tonight through Monday. Freshening breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather may begin as early as Tuesday and will persist through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Rain and thunder chances overnight will be limited to a possible isolated cell in the vicinity of the terminals. Generally dry conditions are expected through much of Sunday, although afternoon storms may fire late in the TAF period. However, uncertainty is too high to include any mention of possible impacts to the terminals at this time. Near-surface winds will be variable at times, although mainly from the south to southwest at 7 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 90 81 90 / 20 40 40 50 Marathon 82 90 82 91 / 20 40 40 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest