Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
347 FXUS62 KKEY 080243 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1043 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 While most of the Middle and Upper Keys remained dry this evening, quite a different story for most of the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. A well-defined island cloud line formed and then quickly blossomed along and north of the Lower Keys. Rainfall amounts across the Lower Keys varied substantially, with MRMS maximum totals of over 2 inches in parts of Sugarloaf and Cudjoe Keys, all the way down to no measured rainfall in parts of Key West. Additional convection pushed off Cuba this afternoon, reaching the Straits of Florida, including an impressive, long-lasting supercell thunderstorm in the western Straits in the vicinity of Wood`s Wall West Crack. The atmosphere has since stabilized for now, with only a few isolated showers now being detected by local Doppler radar. For the rest of tonight, CIMSS satellite-derived total precipitable water product seems to suggest a bout of modestly drier air is advecting in from the south. Combined with a worked over atmosphere and limited remnant boundaries to support convectively-generated collisions, most islands should remain dry. With that said, a 500 mb trough remains just to our west, and the 00z sounding at KEY sampled a relatively moist environment to support at least some isolated shower activity. Given all of these factors, did elect to nudge PoPs down to low-end chance levels for the rest of tonight (around 30%). No other chances proposed for this late evening update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Evening shower and thunderstorm activity has waned over the last several hours, and mainly dry conditions will likely continue for much of the overnight hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly after sunrise. Any thunderstorm will be capable of frequent cloud to surface lightning, as well as brief gusty winds and rapidly building seas. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the central North Atlantic will slide further eastward through the weekend as a frontal boundary stalls off the Eastern Seaboard and over north Florida. This will result in light to gentle southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters through Monday. Southeast to south breezes will likely become gentle to moderate early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will likely prevail at both island terminals for much of the overnight hours. Thereafter, a surge of moisture will bring a better chance for showers with possible thunder in the vicinity of the terminals. While timing of the development and evolution of this possible convection is difficult at this time, have elected to include a mention of VCSH shortly after sunrise for both terminals. Later forecast amendments will include more specific timing and impacts to the terminals. Outside of any showers, winds will be generally from the south at 7 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 89 81 / 50 30 40 30 Marathon 89 81 89 82 / 50 30 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest