Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
430 FXUS62 KKEY 111425 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1025 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A cloudy and somewhat wet start to the day across the Florida Keys. Deep tropical moisture is pumping northward from the western Caribbean thanks to a combination of a low level ridge parked to our east and an approaching upper level trough from the west. Most of the current activity is located across the waters north of the island chain with additional convection racing up from the western Caribbean and Cuba. Cloud cover is keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 80s but the moisture-rich southerly flow has allowed for dew points to climb into the upper 70s to near 80. The combination of which is still producing heat index values in the mid to upper 90s this hour. Only minor changes made to the going forecast for the rest of today. A surge occurred early this morning and is still ongoing with the strongest winds across our western waters. Therefore, nudged winds slightly to account for this surge. Otherwise, with the deep tropical moisture in place and instability readily available it is just a matter of time until rain overspreads across the region. As such, will leave the likely PoPs in place. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the outer Gulf waters. Across the remaining waters with the exception of the Florida Bay, Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are active. The pattern this week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. Although, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic gyre centered over Central America. As such, moderate to fresh breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist today through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the next few hours. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up and move through the area in a northward motion causing potential IFR conditions. For the time being, VCSH and VCTS are included but as timing becomes more nailed down for exact airport impacts, TEMPOS will be included. Near surface winds will be southerly becoming more south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 20 and 25 knots, but gusts in passing showers could near 35 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1999, the daily record rainfall of 2.50" was recorded. Local climate report says the rain fell in less than three hours, and the associated thunderstorms produced wind gusts estimated 50-60 mph and minor damage on Stock Island. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ076>078. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033-034. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest