629
FXUS64 KLCH 180901
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
401 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows a weak cold front extending from an
area of low pressure over far srn MS swwd across sern LA and into
our far ern coastal waters. Water vapor imagery shows a significant
shortwave approaching the forecast area from the Ozarks/ern TX.
Combined with good moisture over the region (00z KLCH sounding
showed a low-level mean RH of 80 percent and a PWAT of 1.63 inches
while KLIX raob showed 82 percent/1.85 inches), local 88Ds were
showing widespread convection over coastal swrn LA/all of s-cntl
LA, plus the adjoining coastal water...some of the activity over
the Gulf was rather hefty with large hail possibly falling.
Meanwhile, the other problem child over the forecast area was
patchy dense fog developing.

In the near term, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the wrn 2/3
of the forecast area as observations on the past hour have shown an
increase in the number of sites seeing lower visibilities, or at
least a downward trend. The fog should burn off after sunrise, with
an expiration time for the advisory of 15z.

This morning should see the last of the rain for a while. Ongoing
activity is expected to continue pushing ewd as the mid-level
shortwave shifts into the forecast area and the sfc front further
departs. For now, POP grids show decreasing rain chances over the
far sern zones for the first couple hours after sunrise. Thereafter,
skies should begin clearing as good dry air aloft begins
encroaching. Despite being on the back side of a cool front, it
won`t really be cool today with highs generally in the upper 80s
(about normal for mid-May).

Moving forward, the remainder of the short term continues to look
dry as ridging aloft builds over the region. Guidance isn`t very
bullish on fog development tonight, which is reflected in the
grids/zones at this time...suspect that the combo of clear
skies/calm winds with lingering boundary layer moisture will spell
at least some patchy fog development prior to sunrise Sunday. Look
for highs back in the lower 90s for most of the area tomorrow and
Monday.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The bulk of the long term continues to look dry as the ridging aloft
lingers into mid-week. We do begin to see a little bit of a pattern
change by late Wednesday though as a nrn stream shortwave begins
breaking down the ridge/nudging it ewd. Meanwhile, an associated sfc
front is progged to drift swd into nrn LA before stalling. As a
series of disturbances swing by to our north, we should see some
convection begin encroaching on our nrn zones by Thursday, although
rain chances remain rather small at this time.

High temps generally hold around 90 degrees through the long term.
Lows are progged to slowly inch upward with mid 70s likely across
the srn zones by the end of the period.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A short wave will move across with showers and thunderstorms
developing near an instability axis from just off the coast of
southeast Texas into lower Acadiana. KBPT and KLCH will have light
thunderstorm activity with MVFR conditions until about 18/08z. A
better chance of thunderstorm activity will be at the KLFT and
KARA terminals through 18/12z with potential for IFR conditions at
KARA.

Once the storm activity ends, and for the terminal at KAEX, low
clouds and patchy fog will form with MVFR into IFR conditions
through about 18/15z.

On Saturday, drier and more stable air will move in and this
should lead to mainly VFR conditions after 18/15z through the
remainder of the day.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  87  70  90  71 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  88  72  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  89  70  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ027-028-
     030-031-073-074-141-142-241-242.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07