Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
286 FXUS64 KLZK 222005 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 305 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An upper ridge continues over the southeast U.S. with several low pressure systems along the northern U.S. border. One upper low will move northeast through the Great Lakes as another one moves into the Rockies Thursday. This low then moves into the upper Midwest Friday as the ridge in the south flattens out. Showers and thunderstorms moved into Arkansas from Oklahoma but have weakened as they moved east. The cold front has moved south into central Arkansas. The atmoshpere remains primed for thunderstorms along and south of this boundary. The highest risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be in the southwest and central sections which is under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the strongest storms. Several short waves will move through the state through Friday bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Several inches of rain are expected through the end of the week. Rain chances continue Thursday across the state and will be mostly in the northeast half of the state Friday. Lows tonight will be in the 60s and in the mid to upper 60s Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and in the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Unsettled weather is forecast to continue in the long term and the holiday weekend. Aloft, a weak upper level trough will be in place across the western CONUS leaving the region in southwest flow. Along this flow, numerous upper level disturbances will move through the region and bring several rounds of precipitation. At the surface a nearly stationary frontal boundary will be draped across the state which will become the focus for severe storms. A moist and unstable air mass will be in place to the south of that boundary making severe weather possible on Saturday and again on Sunday across the region. At this point, it is hard to pin down the specifics but will bear watching in future forecast updates. Models are generally in good agreement that a general pattern change will finally happen late Monday into Tuesday with the aforementioned upper level trough shifting to the east and an upper level ridge building in over the western CONUS. This will help to finally drive the front well through the state and bring a return of northwesterly flow to the region. This will result in drier more stable air to move into Arkansas. How long this period of dry air will persist remains a point of contention between the models with the ECMWF producing a drier solution. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. New thunderstorm initiation is taking place in eastern Arkansas. Expect additional thunderstorms through the period as the front across the state will be nearly stationary but waffle around from time to time. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 83 68 85 / 80 70 70 50 Camden AR 66 85 68 89 / 70 50 50 10 Harrison AR 62 80 65 83 / 70 50 60 30 Hot Springs AR 66 84 67 86 / 80 70 70 10 Little Rock AR 69 86 71 89 / 80 80 70 20 Monticello AR 69 88 71 91 / 70 50 50 10 Mount Ida AR 65 83 65 85 / 80 60 70 10 Mountain Home AR 63 80 65 83 / 70 50 60 40 Newport AR 67 83 68 85 / 80 70 70 50 Pine Bluff AR 68 86 69 89 / 70 70 60 20 Russellville AR 66 83 67 85 / 80 70 60 20 Searcy AR 66 85 68 87 / 80 70 70 40 Stuttgart AR 69 84 71 88 / 80 80 70 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...51