Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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571 FXUS64 KLZK 050536 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An MCV split off from the MCS over Oklahoma this morning and spun into central AR. Short term models were keying on convection developing in its wake this afternoon and bringing stronger storms toward central AR around 00Z. Some very weak convection is now developing in narrow bands behind it...but CAPE appears limited with a bit of a cap in place. Furthermore, HRRR runs now flipping and showing almost no convection this afternoon. I think it would be prudent to continue with some lower rain chances this afternoon thru early this evening...but my overall confidence in the forecast tonight is rather low. This morning models were showing another MCS forming over OK overnight, moving into Arkansas by morning in a somewhat repeat performance. Main difference is that models were trending toward considerably heavier rainfall overnight tonight versus last night. Short term model runs during the day were trying to develop this MCS further north, even into NW Arkansas. Latest run at publication was trending back south again. For the time being, I believe the best course of action is to put highest POPs west and northwest overnight, and trend the POPs spatially in the early morning hours to the southeast across AR. My primary concern with all of this isn`t the POPs, but rather the QPF forecast. At present, the highest QPF values appear to be over SE OK and SW AR. After consulting with neighboring offices, the decision was made to issue a flood watch for flash flooding. However, some adjustments may need to be made to this overnight after we have a better idea of where the MCS will develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Dry conditions are expected across the state at the start of the period but the break in rain chances isn`t expected to last very long. By the weekend, sfc ridging should shift east of the area providing a return of S-SW flow ahead of a cold front expected to sink south into the state. The expanding H500 ridge across the West is expected to begin to break down this weekend as a series of intense cyclones over central Canada work their way south toward the Great Lakes. This will lead to somewhere between a zonal and NW flow regime over the area and will provide an avenue for a steady stream of mid-level disturbances to move through. So, frequent rain chances and possible MCS activity will return to the forecast. Temperatures don`t look too out of hand through the period with perhaps the warmest day being Friday. Portions of northern AR may experience below normal temperatures into early next week with near normal readings elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Rain chances will increase through the overnight hours as a new system moves into portions of Wrn AR/Ern OK and propagates SE with time. CIGs should become MVFR with cloud cover expanding in coverage. This activity is expected to decrease in intensity in coverage the further S and E it travels through the AM hours. Later in the afternoon, new scattered SHRA/TSRA are anticipated across a large portion of AR ahead of an approaching cold front, thus the mention of PROB30 groups. For the most part, winds will be S/SWrly. Winds will switch to NW behind the front. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 66 92 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 61 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 65 93 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 68 93 69 90 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 69 92 70 89 / 20 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 62 93 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 61 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 65 91 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 92 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 63 92 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 65 91 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 91 68 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ052-053-066-130- 137-140-141-230-237-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...56