461
FXUS64 KLZK 092338
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Unpleasant conditions remain in place at the sfc across much of
the state ahead of an approaching cold front. Perspectives remain
vastly different this afternoon as clouds and rain have held
temperatures in the 60s/70s F across northern AR while central and
souther AR have seen temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s F with Td
values in the 70s F. (But we`re not bitter...)

These conditions will help influence how things unfold into the
evening hours as the cold front is expected to sag south while a
H500 shortwave moves across the area in the NW flow. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop from north-central
to central AR by 20z-22z and begin to move S/SE. Afternoon
mesoanalysis indicates between 2000-4000 J/kg of available SBCAPE
along with 30-40 kts of shear are available. This should be more
than adequate in allowing at least a few storms to become severe.
Main corridor of large hail/damaging wind threat remains within
the SPC slight risk area through a few hours after sunset.

By Monday morning the cold front should have progressed south of
the area with precip coming to an end as sfc ridging builds in.
Other than dry conditions, this should help things feel more
pleasant outside for a day or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high
pressure. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable
through much of the period. Some high clouds will be likely early in
the period before mostly clear skies prevail late in the week.

Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average
through the period. High temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to
mid 90s with overnight temperatures dropping into the lower 60s to
lower 70s. The coolest temperatures will be early in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024


Convection will slowly weaken and drift south through the night
with the majority of the activity ending by morning. Stronger
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and maybe some
small hail. Cold front will continue to move south this evening
and tonight with winds shift some the SE to N/NE in its wake. Some
reduced vsby/cigs are possible tonight through daybreak Monday
before conditions improve to VFR through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  83  58  82 /  50   0   0   0
Camden AR         66  84  62  85 /  10  20   0   0
Harrison AR       55  80  56  81 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    64  84  61  85 /  30  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  65  85  63  85 /  40  10   0   0
Monticello AR     67  85  63  85 /  30  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      62  83  60  85 /  40  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  55  80  56  81 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        60  83  59  82 /  50   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  84  62  84 /  20  10   0   0
Russellville AR   62  85  61  85 /  40   0   0   0
Searcy AR         61  84  59  82 /  50   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      65  83  63  82 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...56