418
FXUS64 KLZK 090912
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
412 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Sctd strong/few svr storms affected n-central and northeast AR
durg the overnight hrs. Early this mrng, most of the convection
was confined to southern MO into far northeast AR. Meanwhile, warm
and humid conds were noted elsewhere, with predawn temperatures
in the 70s.

The aforementioned convection was occurring along the periphery of
an upper lvl ridge that was centered along the Gulf Coastal region.
Showers/storms wl stay concentrated acrs northern AR this mrng. A
few storms could produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail,
along with locally heavy rainfall.

Elsewhere, dry conds are expected for the rest of the mrng, but
convective chcs wl incrs this aftn as a large scale upper trof apchs
fm the Plains. This scenario wl allow the upper rdg to weaken,
allowing a new CDFNT to drop into AR.

CAMS have been in good agreement with this trend, with the CDFNT
expected to push south of AR by Monday. Some of the stronger storms
later today into tngt wl have the potential to produce large hail
and damaging winds. However, model output conts to indc that the
bulk of the convection wl be elevated and primarily north of the
bndry.

Rain-cooled air and clouds wl hold daytime highs mainly in the
70s to near 80 in the north. Elsewhere, the mercury wl climb into
the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Resulting aftn heat indices wl reach
well into the 90s, with parts south AR briefly seeing values from
100 to 103 degrees. Highs on Mon wl actually be a few degrees
below normal, ranging fm the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

With the aforementioned CDFNT pushing south of AR on Mon, opted to
keep the fcst dry. However,  but some data suggest we could see some
precip linger in the south durg the mrng hrs. Otherwise, north and
northeast winds wl usher drier air into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Broad sfc high pressure wl be in place acrs the OH River Valley and
greater Appalachia. Seasonal temps and lower humidity levels wl be
seen around the FA Tues, and into Wed, w/ high temps in the upper
70s to mid 80s at most locations.

By Wed, before broad sfc high pressure should begin to drift Ewrd,
w/ Srly sfc flow resuming over the Srn Plains. A subtle H500
shortwave/vorticity max is progged to maneuver thru weak upper
background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For
now, low chc PoPs remain acrs Wrn to S/Wrn AR on Wed aftn.

Thru the remainder of the work week, shortwave H500 ridging is set
to build acrs the Central US and antecedent longwave troughing
recedes and drifts N/Ewrd. Intermittent low-chc diurnal PoPs wl be
seen by most, but otherwise, relatively dry condns are expected thru
the remainder of next week, w/ Srly flow driving incrsg temps and
humidity levels acrs the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Sctd convection wl cont to affect mainly N AR into the early mrng
hrs. MVFR/IFR conds where the heavier activity occurs, along with
gusty winds. Additional convection is expected to form Sun aftn
over northern areas ahead of a slow moving CDFNT. This activity wl
eventually work into central AR later in the PD. Otherwise, VFR
conds wl cont.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  60  83  59 /  50  50   0   0
Camden AR         95  67  84  62 /  10  10  10   0
Harrison AR       76  56  80  57 /  70  40   0   0
Hot Springs AR    94  65  84  63 /  20  30  10   0
Little Rock   AR  92  66  84  65 /  30  40   0   0
Monticello AR     94  68  84  65 /  20  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR      92  65  83  62 /  20  30  10   0
Mountain Home AR  75  57  80  57 /  70  30   0   0
Newport AR        82  62  83  61 /  50  40   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  66  83  63 /  20  30  10   0
Russellville AR   91  65  85  63 /  40  40  10   0
Searcy AR         87  62  83  61 /  40  40   0   0
Stuttgart AR      91  66  83  64 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44