Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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203 FXUS64 KLZK 080541 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 SFC high pressure is moving over the state early this Fri afternoon...with a mostly clear sky and warm conditions ongoing. Dewpts continue to drop across the state...with dewpts in the 50s and 60s. Temps have warmed into the 80s to low 90s. Due to the low dewpts...heat index values have remained near or even just below actual air temps. The SFC high pressure will shift east for tonight into Sat...with SRLY winds returning. Lows tonight into Sat morning will drop down into the 60s to low 70s...with the dry air remaining. Moisture levels will increase for Sat with the increasing SRLY flow. An upper disturbance will move ESE over SRN MO...approaching NRN AR late tonight into Sat morning. Some increasing POPs are forecast as a result for this portion of AR as this disturbance moves overhead. While remnant outflow from morning convection looks to drop south Sat...chances for precip will drop considerably across central to especially SRN sections. Even so...will need to keep an eye on this and there may be some small potential for convection to fire along this outflow further south that currently forecast. There will be a break in the precip Sat afternoon...but chances return Sat night through Sun as a cold front moves south into the state. Convection chances will increase into central sections...but the front may slow or stall by Sun afternoon...with SRN sections potentially remaining dry through Sun afternoon. Chances for SVR WX look to remain low with the activity Sat and Sun...but given late spring/early summer...cannot rule out a few isolated strong...maybe briefly SVR TSRA. The chances for convection look to persist into at least the early part of the long term period as the front starts pushing further south over time. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 To begin the period, NW flow aloft will be over the area. Additionally, surface high pressure will be east of the state as a low pressure system tracks out of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. This will bring the chance of rain across at least northern and western locations...with rain making it south into central and southern Arkansas possible. Multiple round of rain will be possible under this NW flow until the pattern breaks down by Wednesday. Calm and dry conditions are expected Wednesday night through the rest of the period. As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize, damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF amounts will depend on where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, QPF amounts will remain on the low side with northwestern and western Arkansas likely seeing the most. These areas could expect to see up to half an inch through the period...with lesser amounts elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Wl cont to monitor upstream convection that is expected to affect portions of N AR later this mrng. Included TEMPO groups for brief MVFR conds at KHRO and KBPK. Convection is expected to weaken later Sat mrng, leaving a residual outflow bndry acrs the area. Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail with S/SW winds increasing towards midday, with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph, along with higher gusts. Another round of convection could work into N AR late in the PD, but confidence is low at this point to include in the fcst. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...44