Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
956 FXUS64 KLZK 061640 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1140 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Fntl bndry was situated acrs eastern AR early this mrng, along with a corresponding upper trof. Other than some lingering mid and high lvl clouds, skies had cleared ovr the FA. Seeing some patchy fog forming as well, but do not expect it to become widespread. The aforementioned upr trof/fnt wl cont to work to the east today. Drier air wl filter into the FA as W/NW sfc winds incrs. This wl allow aftn highs to top out in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. NWly flow aloft wl bring a new CDFNT into N AR this aftn and thru the rest of the state tngt. Some of the CAM solutions indc the potential for a few showers ovr N AR late today and have included some low end PoPs (20-30%) in those areas. Elsewhere, kept a dry fcst in place. A weak sfc high wl pass acrs the Mid-South on Fri and quickly push to the south and east of the FA Fri ngt. Small rain chcs wl return to the fcst ovr NW AR late Fri ngt as a new SWT apchs fm the NW. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Unsettled wx looks to return to the FA this weekend as sfc high pressure over the Appalachians begins to shift Ewrd. A cdfrnt remains progged to move thru the CNtrl Plains during the early half of the weekend, and approach the Ozarks and Srn Cntrl US by Sun. Some isolated showers and storms may manifest on Sat, primarily acrs the Nrn portion of the region as Srly to S/Wrly low-lvl flow resumes. By Sun, the aforementioned frnt is set to move thru the region thru the day, under incrsgly N/Wrly H500 flow. Generally, N/Wrly H500 flow during the Summer months in the Srn US can be a favorable pattern for MCS`s, so wl continue to monitor for some severe wx potential on Sun, however buoyancy/shear progs remain on the conditionally severe thresholds for now. Otherwise, incrsg covg and magnitude of PoPs is expected fm Nrn to Srn AR as the frnt moves thru the region during the day Sun. PoPs should decrs thru the day Mon, w/ generally drier wx condns prevailing thru the remainder of the long term. A more seasonable airmass wl overspread the FA in the wake of the frnt, w/ near-normal temps thru at least mid-week next week, however the more noticeable change should be in the humidity levels, w/ drier air filtering in as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. A new front will drop south into the state today...with some scattered convection possible across NRN AR. Otherwise...most sites will remain dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 89 62 87 66 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 91 67 91 66 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 85 60 86 65 / 20 10 0 20 Hot Springs AR 92 67 89 66 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 92 68 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 91 70 89 66 / 10 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 66 89 66 / 10 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 87 59 87 65 / 30 20 0 10 Newport AR 92 63 87 66 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 68 89 67 / 10 10 0 0 Russellville AR 91 66 89 66 / 10 10 0 0 Searcy AR 90 64 88 64 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 89 68 88 67 / 10 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...62