Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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405 FXUS64 KMAF 211723 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1223 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Unseasonably warm weather continues with westerly flow increasing today as a shortwave trough passes to the north, and despite ample high clouds this afternoon, temps will once again reach the upper 90s/low 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lower Brewster County and those along the Rio Grande where highs will peak above 110 this afternoon and possibly Wednesday afternoon as well. As the shortwave departs, a backdoor cold front will push down into Texas, possibly reaching the northern Permian Basin by early Wednesday afternoon where it will likely stall. Unfortunately, this front won`t bring even seasonable temperatures as warm westerly flow wins out and temperatures once again reach the upper 90s/low 100s nearly everywhere. Rather than bringing us cooler weather, the cold front will meet with a disturbance moving across West Texas and initiate a few storms Wednesday afternoon across the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Model soundings show sufficient instability, but a lack of low-level moisture will confine any storm development to the farthest eastern reaches of the CWA. Hi-res models continue to shunt the moisture and better storm chances further east for Wednesday evening, but have maintained at least minimal POPs through the short term period. If anything does manage to develop, severe weather cannot be ruled out, with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Much of the extended looks hot so get used to the A/C or being by the pool, especially heading into the Memorial Day weekend. A cold front that arrives midweek will quickly mix out Thursday afternoon as very dry air gets transported north from Mexico. Models currently suggest dew points could drop from near 70 F Thursday morning to below 0 F by afternoon! In addition to the dry air, southwest winds will increase bringing elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs back into the 90s for most with 100s along the Rio Grande. Deep westerly flow will lead to breezy, hot conditions through the weekend with temperatures remaining in the upper 90s and low 100s. A pattern change early next week could bring the next cold front our way and finally a break in the current heat wave. Unfortunately, rain chances remain low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue. A weak front has caused northwest winds across terminals but these transition to westerly this afternoon. Wind gusts are expected for western terminals. Winds weaken tonight with eastern terminals shifting back to southeast winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Fire potential will be focused from the Trans Pecos north to the Guadalupe Mountains over the next week. Critically dry fuels are expected to emerge as elevated to near critical fire weather conditions develop. Most notably, extremely dry air will arrive Wednesday through the weekend with RH values below 5 percent for a widespread area. Winds will increase to around 15 mph each afternoon along and west of the Pecos River and higher in the mountains above 5Kft. While IA potential remains low, a large fire is possible if one can become established in complex terrain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 94 65 99 / 10 20 10 0 Carlsbad 63 95 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 104 73 104 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 70 102 65 100 / 10 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 92 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 94 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 70 96 64 97 / 10 10 10 0 Odessa 71 96 65 97 / 10 0 10 0 Wink 67 99 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...91