Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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857 FXUS64 KMAF 201049 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 549 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Most locations saw their first 100 degree temperature of the season yesterday and will likely see another today. An LLTR will extend from Mexico across our region north to the Panhandles with 850 mb temperatures >31C. Similar to yesterday, highs will soar into the 100s across much of the area with the hottest conditions again along the Rio Grande (~115F). The Heat Advisory has been extended through today for the Davis and Chisos Mountains and along the Rio Grande in lower Brewster county. Another mild night is in store tonight with lows in the 60s/70s. A shortwave will pass well to our north Tuesday bringing a weak Pacific front through the area. While it will remain hot, highs will come down a few degrees with most locations along and north of I-20 avoiding the century mark. Further south it looks like more of the same and the Heat Advisory may need to be extended yet another day for the Big Bend. Still not seeing any chance for rain through the early week. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Normally, a "cold front" would be welcome phrase after a period of unseasonable warm temperatures, but unfortunately this front will be anything but cold. A backdoor cold front will shoot down into the Panhandle on Wednesday, likely reaching the northern CWA by early Wednesday afternoon. At this point it will be pushed back northward with warm southwesterly flow winning out, and temperatures across the northern Permian Basin will only be a few degrees cooler compared to Tuesday, in the low 90s. Elsewhere, highs in the upper 90s/low 100s will continue, with 110+ along the Rio Grande where another Heat Advisory will likely be needed. While the front is pushed out of the region, a disturbance moving across may be sufficient for a few storms to develop in the far eastern Permian Basin, but moisture will be the limiting factor here and storm develop will depend greatly on the location of the dryline. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with storms Wednesday afternoon, but both of the global models have pulled back on precipitation chances in the latest run. Waiting on better consistency, have maintained at least low POP chances for both Wednesday and Thursday, but chances seem to dwindling for mid- week storms. Weak ridging builds back in Thursday and beyond with a thermal ridge axis displaced just west of the region. With a similar pattern to this week, multiple rounds of shortwaves will pass to the north, and compressional warming with downsloping winds will continue to push temperatures higher and higher each day, and parts of the Permian Basin may once again hit the 100s by the weekend. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR with gusty west winds this afternoon diminishing around sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 103 73 99 69 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 101 68 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 104 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 106 70 100 70 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 91 67 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 99 65 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 96 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 102 72 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 102 73 96 70 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 104 68 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...29