Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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649 FXUS64 KMAF 241739 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A weak cold front enhanced by a modified outflow boundary is gradually working its way southward across the Permian Basin this morning, with a northerly wind shift in its wake. To the north, temperatures across the South Plains remain in the 60s and lower 70s, thus despite ample insolation this afternoon, expect this boundary to result in cooler temperatures, especially across the northern tier of the forecast area. Thus, have adjusted highs down accordingly today, with highs topping out in the upper 80s across far northern areas and in the mountains, lower to middle 90s for most other locations, and the only 100s confined along portions of the Rio Grande Valley. While still above normal, these temperatures will offer somewhat of a reprieve from the heat, which looks to crank up over the holiday weekend. The remainder of the forecast this morning is on track. JP && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. KMAF 00Z raob and VWP show southwest to west flow throughout the column, keeping moisture to the east. Today, return flow may briefly push a dryline bulge into the lower Trans Pecos this morning, but this will quickly mix east as a cold front tries to backdoor the area. The front isn`t very strong, but will shave a degree or two off of yesterday`s highs, precluding the need for any heat products today. Highs this afternoon should average only 5-7F above normal. Despite this cooling, low single- digit relative humidity is anticipated across most of the area. Tonight, surface winds go light and variable, and under mostly clear skies, efficient radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to cool to only ~ 2-4F above normal. To the west, and upper trough is forecast to be digging through the southwest CONUS. Saturday, zonal flow aloft goes to southwest as the trough moves into the region. This will develop a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes for a few hours of high winds there, and possibly advisory winds on the plains in the lee of the mountains. The new NBM 4.2 winds are not very representative of this. In fact, the NBM90 alone doesn`t generate high winds in the Guadalupes at all Saturday. We speculate that, just as an erroneous dewpoint reading can "infect" the NBM, lack of a wind sensor at KGDP is similarly "infecting" the NBM there, and resulting in lower wind forecasts. That said, we`ll increase winds Saturday afternoon/evening, and issue a High Wind Watch to cover this. These increased winds will add a downslope warming component to the mix, increasing afternoon highs to 8-10F above normal. Heat Advisories will once again be needed south. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Come 12z Sunday, we`ll still have the lingering jet associated with Saturday`s shortwave gradually departing. This contributes to another hot, dry, and breezy day with the dryline shoved all the way into San Angelo`s area. On the heels of this weekend`s shortwave, a back-door front will likely nose into the Permian Basin with some elevated northerly winds, however, plenty of sunshine takes a toll on any temperature gradient and the hot weather stays through Monday afternoon. A bit of a pattern change comes after Monday as lighter westerlies allows return flow to take hold, shoving the dryline back to the TX/NM state line by Tuesday morning. This could set the stage for the next round of thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The instability will be there east of the dryline but wind shear is going to be somewhat limited with the light flow aloft. For you rain seekers, stay tuned over the next few days as more details become available. That being said, the increased rain chances and cloud cover should provide *some* relief from the above- normal heat during the middle part of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Elevated and intermittently gusty northwesterly to northerly winds are possible through around 20Z-21Z, with gusts diminishing later this afternoon and winds becoming light overnight. By around 14Z-16Z, winds shift to the west-southwest at all terminals, becoming gusty at or just beyond the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A fairly active period of fire weather is anticipated this weekend with extremely dry conditions persisting each afternoon with a shortwave pushing through on Saturday. For today, extremely low humidities develop by the afternoon (as low as 2 percent in spots), but wind speeds will only be sustained near 15-20 mph and fire weather conditions should stay elevated to near-critical at best. Moisture recovery only makes it to the east-central Permian Basin by sunrise today, with very dry conditions persisting out west. Despite the lack of winds, the humidity and very dry fuels could lead to generally IA fire potential. With the incoming shortwave for Saturday, winds will be much stronger. Following another morning of poor recovery along/west of the Pecos, humidities once again fall to 5 percent or less with westerly winds sustained 20-30 mph (and stronger winds in the mountains). This combination sends RFTIs into the 7-8 range, which when paired with the extremely dry fuels (ERCs easily above the 97th percentile west of the Pecos), suggest critical to extreme fire weather conditions for Saturday afternoon. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas. The tail-end of the jet associated with Saturday`s shortwave lingers through the area into Sunday afternoon, keeping elevated winds in place, mainly across the western high terrain. While another morning of poor moisture recovery and afternoon humidity near 5 percent, winds may be light enough to sneak below critical conditions but this forecast will be largely dictated by how strong of winds linger into Sunday. Beyond Sunday, better moisture return sends the dryline westward of the TX/NM state line each morning along with lighter winds and less dry afternoons should keep fire weather concerns on the low side through much of the work-week. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 63 101 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 100 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 69 105 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 64 104 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 90 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 57 99 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 51 95 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 100 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 63 101 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 103 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Terrell. NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...84