Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 122236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122235
MNZ000-WIZ000-130000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...
Valid 122235Z - 130000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3
inches in diameter) and locally damaging gusts are the main concerns
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 for the next hour or so.
Tornado and damaging-wind potential may gradually increase with
time.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH, KMVX, and KABR depict
intense, semi-discrete splitting supercells evolving across portions
of northern/central MN as of 2230Z. Several 1-1.5-inch hail reports
have accompanied this activity. These storms are generally focused
along/immediately ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented surface
trough/wind shift, with around 50-60 kt of effective shear oriented
perpendicular to this zone of low-level mesoscale ascent. Given a
long/mostly straight hodograph (sampled by DLH VWP data), a
continuation of splitting semi-discrete supercells capable of very
large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and locally damaging gusts are
the main concerns in the near-term.
With time, these storms will continue east-southeastward into an
area of larger low-level shear/hodograph curvature (see MPX 22Z
sounding and VWP), which may favor an increasing tornado threat. In
fact, one storm over far northeastern MN appears to be ingesting
some of this streamwise vorticity and has recently developed an
organized low-level mesocyclone. Convective trends will be monitored
for the need for a targeted tornado watch southeast of the ongoing
storms.
..Weinman.. 06/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46199626 46799568 47109516 47839349 48059186 48029095
47729051 47269061 46819190 46189328 45359452 45369530
45599609 45909633 46199626