263
ACUS11 KWNS 101917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101916
TXZ000-NMZ000-102145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico to western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 101916Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is underway
across southeast New Mexico and far western Texas. Initially
discrete cells will likely pose a severe hail/wind risk across
southeast New Mexico before gradual upscale growth later this
afternoon/evening into western Texas. Convective coverage remains
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the need for watch
issuance across portions of west Texas.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery show early thunderstorm
development across far southeast NM into far western TX along a
weak/diffuse low-level confluence axis, as well as within upslope
flow regime on the eastern side of the Sacramento Mountains.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated through late
afternoon as temperatures climb into the low/mid 80s and MLCIN
continues to wane. Initial cells will likely be isolated, and may
remain fairly weak given more marginal moisture/buoyancy within this
initiation zone. However, 30-knot mid-level flow on the southern
fringe of a weak mid-level vorticity maximum is elongating
hodographs through 5 to 6 km AGL, which may support storm
organization with an attendant severe hail/wind risk.

Thunderstorms should intensify as they migrate downstream into the
southern Permian Basin and northern Edwards Plateau where higher
quality low-level moisture is noted in 19 UTC surface observations
(dewpoints in the low to mid 60s). Discrete cells that can meander
into this air mass may pose a more robust hail threat as they fully
realize more substantial effective bulk shear (between 35-40 knots).
However, given a somewhat deep (around 2 km), well-mixed boundary
layer and weak low-level storm relative winds, storms may have a
high probability of becoming outflow dominant within the first
couple of hours. Upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line
appears possible, but may be conditional on the coverage of initial
cells (which remains uncertain). If this scenario occurs, a more
focused wind threat may materialize downstream across parts of the
Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau later this evening. Trends will
continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance as storm
coverage becomes more apparent.

..Moore/Gleason.. 06/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31780282 31990321 32200345 32530346 32940332 33250321
            33660289 33750270 33740229 33640196 33540176 33350136
            32680012 32240005 31750012 31360040 31000095 30880131
            31000171 31780282