Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 101751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101750
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Areas affected...far southern MS into southern AL...southwest
GA...and parts of the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101750Z - 101945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon. Strong gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible with the strongest storms.
DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
continue developing through the afternoon in the vicinity of a
stationary surface boundary draped across the region. Large-scale
ascent is expected to remain weak and low-level convergence limited.
However, strong heating surface dewpoints generally in the low 70s
is resulting in MLCAPE values to 2500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will
remain mostly unidirectional from the west/southwest and also fairly
weak through 4-5 km. Strengthening flow from about 500 mb upwards
will however support effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt.
Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, and a brief/transient
supercell or two will be possible with better organized convection.
Overall this environment should support thunderstorms capable of
gusts from 45-60 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter. A watch
probably will not be needed given overall marginal nature of the
parameter space, but convective trends will be monitored.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31198830 31978530 32108433 31698385 30948397 30608500
30338605 30318747 30368851 30538885 30708893 30878888
31198830