970
ACUS11 KWNS 080315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080314
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Areas affected...Central/eastern KS...extreme southeast NE...western
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

Valid 080314Z - 080445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe-wind threat may continue into the overnight
hours. WW 397 will be extended in time, with eventual downstream
watch issuance possible.

DISCUSSION...One long-lived storm cluster is currently moving out of
south-central/southeast NE into northern KS, with another small but
intense storm cluster moving eastward across central KS. The central
KS cluster recently produced a 70 kt gust in Russell, and will
continue to pose a threat for 65-80 mph gusts (along with isolated
hail) as it moves through an environment with MLCAPE of greater than
2500 J/kg and strong effective shear. A threat for at least isolated
hail and severe gusts will also accompany the northern cluster in
the short term as it moves southeastward into a larger portion of
northern KS.

Storm evolution later tonight remains uncertain. A strong low-level
jet will continue to support organized convection into the overnight
hours. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential
interaction between the northern and southern cluster, and any
potential for further upscale growth with time. With some severe
threat likely to persist into at least the early overnight hours, WW
397 will be extended in time by 2 hours (until 1 AM CDT). Eventual
downstream watch issuance remains possible, if trends support a
continued organized severe risk into the overnight hours.

..Dean/Bunting.. 06/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38619891 40289873 40349671 39959492 38979412 37469411
            37529822 38229869 38619891