094
FXUS64 KMEG 121745
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Another warm, dry day is on tap for the Mid-South as high pressure
remains over the area. A thin cirrus deck will continue to slide
east with clear skies following behind it. As winds go calm
tonight under clear skies, areas along the Tennessee River as well
as low lying areas could see fog development overnight. Today`s
highs will be in the mid 80s with temperatures increasing each day
and continuing through the weekend as mid-level ridging builds in
and dewpoints increase.

The current forecast package is on track.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected daily through
the weekend. Saturday and Sunday may see triple digit heat
indices. Rain chances return and temperatures come back down early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A broad 1016 mb surface high extends from the ArkLaTex up through
the southern Appalachians per the latest 06Z surface analysis.
This surface ridging will remain in place over the Mid-South for
the next several days, allowing temperatures to climb
progressively higher through the weekend. Most areas should reach
90 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. This weekend is where we`ll
really start to heat up for the first time this year as a strong
midlevel ridge sets up over the southeastern CONUS.

NBM deterministic high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday came
in seemingly way too hot near 100 degrees; the realm of all other
pieces of guidance sat more in the mid 90s. Cross checking with
the NBM probabilistic data, temperatures were brought down a few
degrees this weekend to account for the NBM being an extreme
outlier. There were only a few areas with low probabilities (less
than 40%) of temperatures > 100 degrees on Sunday afternoon, which
further nudged confidence enough to undercut highs a bit,
especially on Sunday. It will certainly be hot this weekend, but
most likely not pushing 100 degrees. Similarly, heat indices will
likely reach triple digits Saturday and Sunday, but it`s not
looking like heat headlines will be necessary.

The midlevel ridge looks to amplify even further as it shifts over
to the Eastern Seaboard early next week. This will allow Gulf
moisture to be funneled up the Lower MS River Valley as southerly
flow returns with a vengeance on the western fringe of the strong
ridge. Guidance has trended a bit drier for the Mid-South with the
last few model runs, keeping the precipitation axis confined to
the central Gulf Coast. Regardless, rain chances will be on the
rise as early as Monday afternoon (20-30%), continuing daily
through mid next week. Even if we don`t see much precipitation,
moisture will be plentiful. Dewpoints and resultant heat indices
will also begin their gradual climb back into uncomfortably hot
and humid territory by the middle of next week.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist through
the period. Patchy fog is possible towards sunrise at MKL and
TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC/ACH