665
FXUS64 KMEG 101954
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Dry weather will continue across the Midsouth through the end of
the week. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through
Wednesday, especially at night. Temperatures will warm to well
above normal for the latter half of the week, under building high
pressure aloft.

Tropical air and a weak upper level disturbance will return rain
chances to the Midsouth late Sunday through the early part of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level longwave tough
over the eastern third of the U.S. with northwest flow over the
Midsouth. At the surface, regional METARs showed light northerly
winds and dewpoints in the 50s.

Dewpoints will remain in the 50s through Wednesday. This dry air
will allow for wider than typical diurnal temperature ranges, with
overnight lows averaging 10 degrees below normal. The dry air will
likewise warm efficiently, with daytime highs just a few degrees
below normal. By Thursday, an upper level ridge will edge in from
the southern plains, with most of the Midsouth experiencing high
temperatures around 90.

The upper ridge will lift into the lower MS River Valley on
Saturday, with 500mb geopotential heights reaching 593 dam. By
this time, evapotranspiration and weak southerly surface flow will
warm surface dewpoints near 70, resulting in heat indices around
100. Add a couple more degrees to those heat indices on Sunday, as
temperatures and dewpoints warm under the western lobe of the
upper ridge.

Increasing surface dewpoints and a weak upper trough over LA will
return rain chances to north MS on Sunday. The weak upper trough
will lift north through the lower and middle MS River Valley early
next week, likely further weakening in the process. The net
result for the Midsouth will be weak daytime convective inhibition,
and a continued chance storms through the middle of next week.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions through the period as ridging dominates the
region. Fog with reduced vsbys are expected to develop overnight
at MKL as skies clear and winds go calm. Otherwise, light north
winds will shift northeast around sunset and remain through the
TAF period across all terminals.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH