Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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543 FXUS64 KMEG 100418 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1118 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Updated to cancel the remainder of the Severe thunderstorm Watch #401. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire region tonight as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible south of the cold front. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are the main weather threats. High pressure will build into the region behind the front bringing cooler and drier air for Monday through Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build into the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected by Thursday and continuing into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Skies are cloudy across extreme northern sections of the Mid-South with mostly sunny weather over the remainder of the region. Temperatures continue to vary quite a bit with readings in the upper 60s over northeast Arkansas to the lower 90s over portions of north Mississippi. The area of showers and thunderstorms that was moving across portions of west Tennessee this morning have exited the region. A second area of showers and thunderstorms are moving into portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. A cold front remains across portions of west Tennessee and east Arkansas. The cold front will continue to move south tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and tonight ahead of the front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight south of the front. Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall are all possible with these thunderstorms. High pressure will start to build into the region late tonight with thunderstorms confined to extreme southern sections of the Mid-South overnight. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will remain over the region for Monday through Wednesday. This will result in dry weather and below normal temperatures during this period. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with highs in the mid 80s across the entire region by Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper level ridge starts to slide east across the southern Plains and into the southeast U.S. This will result in a period of dry weather and above normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most terminals through the TAF period, guidance has hinted at the potential for fog development at MKL starting later tonight between 09-12z. Near surface winds are forecast to remain out of the north to northeast between 5-10 knots, with the potential for gusts between 15-20 knots in the afternoon at all sites except TUP. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JPR