Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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499 FXUS64 KMEG 091145 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South into tonight as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire Mid-South with the greatest potential along and south of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are the severe weather threats. A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the front bringing cooler and drier air for the start of the week. The ridge will build across the region with hot temperatures in the lower to middle 90s expected by late week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An active early morning across portions of the Central Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as one MCS has departed the Mid-South and another one over eastern Kansas has expanded into southern Missouri. Consequently, regional WSR-88D radar trends show numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms upstream over Missouri with convective activity in a relative minimum at the moment across the Mid-South. Early morning surface analysis places a cold front from Pennsylvania back through southern Missouri and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures remain quite mild in the 70s with surface dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Short-term CAMs continue to struggle with the convective initiation as overnight convection hasn`t been resolved well at all with the relatively weak upper-level flow. Nonetheless, short-term models including the HREF indicate additional showers and thunderstorms should develop across the region into tonight along and ahead of the cold front. Confidence remains low with strong to severe thunderstorm potential this morning as overnight convection has stabilized the atmosphere somewhat especially north of I-40. Instability is expected to increase throughout the day, especially along and south of I-40 where moderate to strong instability will develop as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. These warm temperatures combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of bulk shear may result in the intensification of showers and thunderstorms that develop especially during peak heating. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds, perhaps some large hail as the main severe weather threats. Ample low level moisture with NAEFS still indicating precipitable water values around 2 inches (99th percentile) suggests the potential for localized heavy rainfall where training of thunderstorms do occur. Cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South by Monday with highs only reaching the lower to middle 80s as an upper-level trough will persist over the Eastern U.S. Long range operational and ensemble model solutions indicate a potential for hot and humid weather to return towards late this week as an upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. CJC && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will sag south across the Mid-South today, shifting winds from the north in its wake. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of this front during the morning hours but a general lull in precipitation is anticipated late morning through mid-afternoon. Diurnal storms will develop by peak heating, moving southeast across the CWA during the late afternoon and evening period. The greatest risk for thunder on station will be at MEM/TUP. This activity will generally end by 05z, though some straggling showers may linger into the early morning hours. Low clouds are expected along/north of the front today. Prevailing MVFR conditions are expected at JBR/MKL today with tempo MVFR conditions at MEM/TUP. Low clouds will persist into the early morning hours, gradually clearing from north to south. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...MJ