628
FXUS64 KMEG 090421
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Convection across southern Missouri is sagging into NE AR and has
been on a weakening trend as it heads eastward. The airmass is not
quite as supportive of severe weather further toward the east.
Still could see a strong to severe storms across NE AR over the
next couple of hours with more of wind threat than a hail threat.
Another concern is the heavy rain threat with PWs around 2 inches
across NE AR and the MO Bootheel and convection that has tended to
train this evening. There is fairly robust 850 moisture transport
into the region helping to aid the heavy rain potential. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue to spread over the northern half
of the Mid-South overnight with a gradual weakening trend as
storms spread east and south.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northern half of the
Mid-South tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the
north. A few thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe late
this evening mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds,
and localized heavy rainfall are possible. As the cold front moves
through the region on Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front from Sunday morning through
Monday morning.

Cooler and drier air will build into the area by Monday night.
Temperatures will warm back to the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. Along
with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this
afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 90 degrees.
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across
portions of west Tennessee.

A cold front will move south out of northern Missouri tonight and
will be just north of the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front
tonight with some of this activity moving across northern sections
of the Mid-South, mainly north of I-40. Some of the thunderstorms
could be strong or possibly severe tonight. Damaging winds, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall would be the main threats.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm tonight with lows Sunday
morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As the cold front moves south through the Mid-South on Sunday,
more scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of it.
Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs from
the upper 70s to lower 90s. As the front moves into north
Mississippi Sunday night, scattered thunderstorms will be confined
to the southern half of the region. Temperatures will remain
cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s
to upper 60s.

As the cold front reaches central Mississippi Monday morning,
thunderstorms could be found across extreme southern sections of
the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region on
Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry weather with
below normal temperatures is expected for Monday night through
Wednesday morning. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible
on Wednesday.

An upper level ridge will start to build into the Mid-South
starting Thursday and continuing into Friday. This will bring
warmer air into the region with above normal temperatures expected
for both days. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Expect TSRAs to impact JBR and MKL over the next few hours. Less
certain about MEM so kept a VCTS there. This round of convection
will push east Sunday morning by 14z with lingering low clouds
likely at JBR/MKL. As the front sags south additional development
is possible on Sunday. The redevelopment should be south of
JBR/MKL and most likely at TUP. Light south winds will shift north
at 10 kts after the front moves through with ocnl gusts.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...SJM