Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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036 FXUS64 KMEG 072346 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High pressure is currently moving over the mid-south this Fri afternoon...with a clear sky and warm/dry conditions noted. Temps across the area have warmed into the 80s for most areas...with dewpts in the upper 40s to low 50s. This high pressure will slide east tonight into Sat...with SRLY flow returning for much of Sat into Sun. The SRLY flow will bring increasing moisture back to the area for Sat and especially for Sat night. An upper disturbance will drop ESE over SRN MO into ERN TN/KY Sat morning...with some increased chances for convection Sat morning along the MO/AR border. This activity looks to dissipate by late in the morning and into the afternoon hrs before making much EWD progress. However...there may be some more SWD extent to precip if the outflow from morning convection is strong enough to trigger more convection further SE. Even so...POPs look to remain on the low side on the SRN/SERN sections of the area into Sat afternoon. A new front will drop south across MO Sat night before slowing over NERN AR Sun morning. Have increasing POPs for most of the area starting north to south Sat night into Sun as a result...eventually dropping south across SRN sections through Sun night into Mon as the front pushes through the area. A few strong to briefly SVR storms could be seen Sat into Sat night...but the overall threat for seeing organized SVR Wx is somewhat low at this time. Even so...given the late spring/early summer time frame...cannot rule out a few brief SVR storms...with damaging winds the primary threat with the strongest storms. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen Sat through Mon. By Tue...flow aloft will be NW over the region with an upper trough over the ERN CONUS...resulting in mainly dry conditions into the middle of the upcoming week. However...a weak upper shortwave may approach the region from the NW mid-week...with some POPs returning to the forecast. This upper shortwave looks to drop south towards the Gulf Coast late in the forecast...with drier weather returning to wrap up the forecast by the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Prevailing VFR conds are expected through the TAF cycle with mid/high clouds increasing through the overnight period. Slight chance of PoPs will return to the forecast on Saturday, which is mentioned in TEMPO groups. Clouds should decrease late in the TAF period over Nrn sites, with little in the way of clouds noted over Srn sites. Winds will be light overnight, becoming gusty out of the SW at 10 to 20 kts on Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...35 AVIATION...70