739
FXUS62 KMFL 052304
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
704 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A few lingering showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will
be possible over the next couple hours over SW Florida but
otherwise a dry and warm night is expected. No significant changes
to the ongoing forecast with the evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The surface ridge will continue to gradually lose its strength
today, but will remain enough of a factor to keep a general
southeasterly wind regime in the low levels and at the surface.
Lingering subsidence and mid-level drier air will inhibit the
overall convective potential, particularly from a large scale
perspective. Nevertheless, the gulf and sea breezes will act as
sources of lift through this evening, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing. Highest PoPs will be towards the
interior and west coast, around 40-50% as an easterly-
southeasterly regime favors those areas. The main hazards with any
storms will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent
lightning. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s
near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the interior sections,
with peak heat indices in the low triple digits.

Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will push into the
eastern U.S., with a mid-level shortwave propagating along the
southern edge of it over central and southern Florida. This
shortwave will enhance ascent across the area, in addition to the
daily afternoon sea and gulf breezes, resulting in showers and
storms being more widespread. With steepening mid-level lapse
rates and lower freezing levels, there will be the potential for
some storms to become strong to severe with large hail, primarily
across the Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County areas. Storms
will also be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain. High temperatures will see a slight uptick with
winds turning more southerly, allowing a vast majority of
locations to reach the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will
approach advisory criteria, reaching 103-108 across much of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Friday-Sunday: The aforementioned mid-level trough will continue
pushing eastward as an attendant surface frontal boundary drifts
across the southeast US. As a result, local winds will shift from
the west-southwest through the weekend, leading to abnormally warm
temperatures across the East Coast each afternoon. High
temperatures could reach the mid to upper 90s each day, with areas
in the interior potentially topping out in the triple digits.
Heat indices will likewise climb into the mid 100s for most areas
under southwest flow, and thus there will be potential for heat
advisories. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could provide some
relief each afternoon, with 40-50% chances for precip along the
East coast metro each afternoon. Southwest Florida will benefit
from the prevailing flow, with temperatures up to the low 90s
possible.

Next week: For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically as
some guidance highlights potential for a tropical wave to impact
the area and other guidance shows it avoiding the area. If this
feature continues to show signs of materializing in future
guidance and could pose threats to our region, then potential
impacts will be described. However, conditions are highly
uncertain at this time and thus this needs to be taken with a
grain of salt for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours.
Winds will trend light and variable overnight and then follow
typical sea-breeze circulations by Thursday afternoon with SE
winds at the east coast sites, and W-SW winds at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Benign conditions will be in place for the rest of the week with
seas at 2 feet or less and east-southeast winds around 5 to 10 kts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
and may create locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  79  93 /  20  50  20  40
West Kendall     76  94  76  94 /  20  50  20  40
Opa-Locka        79  94  79  94 /  20  40  20  40
Homestead        78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  92 /  10  40  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  79  93 /  10  40  20  40
Pembroke Pines   79  95  79  96 /  20  40  20  40
West Palm Beach  77  93  76  94 /  10  40  30  40
Boca Raton       78  93  78  94 /  10  40  20  40
Naples           78  93  79  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Carr