Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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165 FXUS62 KMFL 230530 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 130 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A line if scattered showers continues to slowly drift westward across Collier county, the last remnants of earlier sea breeze-induced convection. The showers should continue to gradually dissipate, but a few more showers could develop through the rest of the evening hours, mainly around the Gulf coast. Overnight temps will be similar to the previous two nights with inland areas in the upper 60s and low-mid 70s near the coasts. No significant changes are required to inherited forecast with only minor updates to POPs/Wx grids to better reflect the model trend towards drier conditions Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 With the mid-level shortwave continuing to propagate to the east today, 500mb flow is veering to a more northerly direction and temperatures aloft have begun to warm. Combined with background northeasterly surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations will favor convective initiation across the southern inland portions of our area once again. With the Atlantic sea-breeze progressing further inland, the greatest convective activity will center over inland/suburban Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Collier Counties this afternoon albeit with less coverage. 500mb temperatures will be in the -5 to -7 C range this afternoon. This will keep the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden variety form, although localized ascent along boundary collisions could still support the potential of a quick pulse isolated strong to severe capable of a wet microburst if the storm pulses up and collapses in a quick fashion. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will continue to build and remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame as the aforementioned shortwave remains in the western Atlantic waters. Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will remain in a light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of synoptic forcing across the area with the subtropical jet located well to the north of our region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the aforementioned synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage which will mainly focus across inland areas during the afternoon hours. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Thursday night into Friday night... The 500 mb ridge will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as a trough of low pressure moves eastward from the Central United States into the Southeastern United States. This will keep most of the deeper moisture north of South Florida during this time frame. However, the east and west coast sea breezes should develop on Friday and push inland. Where the sea breezes collide, there could be a few showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and even hours on Friday mainly over the interior areas. Highs on Friday will be around 90 over the metro areas to the lower to mid 90s over the interior areas. This will allow for the heat indices to get up into mid to upper 90s over the metro areas to around 100 over the interior areas. Lows Thursday night and again Friday night will be lower to mid 70s over the interior areas and mid 70s over the metro areas. This weekend... The 500 mb high will weaken a little bit over the Gulf of Mexico as the trough of low pressure moves east into the Western Atlantic waters. This will allow for a weak cold front to move southward into Northern Florida from the north before dissipating. This in turn will allow for a little bit more of a south/southwest flow over South Florida this weekend. Therefore, the best coverage will be over the Lake okeechobee region and the NE areas of South Florida each afternoon. However, the POPS will be in the 20 to 30 percent range mainly over the areas mention above. Highs this weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas with mid 90s to near 100 over the interior areas. Heat indices will also be in the lower 100s over the metro areas to mid 100s over the interior areas. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s over the interior areas to mid to upper 70s over the metro areas. Early to mid next week... Another trough of low pressure will build into the Eastern United States for early to middle of next week. This will allow for another cold front to move southward into the Southeastern United States. This in turn will keep the south to southwest wind flow over South Florida during this time frame and allow for deeper moisture to start to work into the region from the south. Therefore, isolated to scattered POPs will possible each afternoon mainly over the interior and east coast metro areas each afternoon. At the same time, the highs will be increasing again over South Florida with lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to mid to upper 90s over the interior areas with even an isolated 100 around Lake Okeechobee region. The heat indices will also be going up into the mid 100s over most areas with even a few locations over the interior areas getting up into the upper 100s to near 110 degrees each afternoon. The lows each night will also be back into the mid 70s over the interior areas to around 80 over the metro areas. If this trend continues in later model runs, then there could be heat advisories again for South Florida for early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 L/V winds overnight with sea-breeze circulations switching winds to an onshore direction along both coasts later this morning into the early afternoon hours. VFR and mostly dry outside of a few isolated showers across inland areas throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across local && .BEACHES... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South Florida, a gradual increase in rip current risks will continue across the east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place for Palm Beach County beaches at this time, but could be extended into rest of the east coast beaches in later updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 77 91 78 / 10 0 10 10 West Kendall 91 73 92 75 / 10 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 91 75 92 78 / 10 0 10 10 Homestead 89 75 90 77 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 89 78 / 10 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 76 90 78 / 10 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 92 76 94 78 / 10 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 88 73 90 75 / 0 0 10 10 Boca Raton 89 75 91 76 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 92 77 92 78 / 10 20 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....BNB AVIATION...Hadi