Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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383 FXUS62 KMFL 250527 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Main story for tomorrow will be a digging short-wave impulse, which will prompt a low-level mass response that fosters congealing moisture and convergence of low-level winds, as well as perhaps a slightly augmentation to bulk shear profiles. As a result, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across South Florida to start the holiday weekend - particularly along the eastern half of the CWFA. An isolated strong or marginally severe thunderstorm is certainly outside the realm of possibilities, and the main threat will be isolated strong to damaging winds and well as hail (lower chance of occurrence). Not much change to the forecast overall, though latest update did feature a slight uptick in eastern metro PoPs (into the 40s/50s). Expecting timing for storms to be between 3-7pm, though this could certainly shift earlier/later depending on how dynamics evolve. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Surface high pressure and upper level ridging is in place today which will again result in drier than normal conditions for South FL. 12Z sounding shows plenty of dry air in place above 850mb, and with limited moisture in place, it`ll be mostly sunny early today becoming partly cloudy by mid afternoon as the cumulus field expands during the peak heating hours. Low end chance of a few showers or isolated thunderstorm over interior SW FL late this afternoon into early evening due to expected sea-breeze collisions across the area. Afternoon high temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the east coast metro, to middle 90s over the interior. Clearing skies overnight will mild temps in the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s elsewhere. Looking a bit more active on Saturday as the ridge temporarily breaks down and a shortwave pivots off the SE US coast. HREF and forecast soundings show moisture increasing with PWAT values approaching 2 inches. Low level SW flow early in the day and the east coast sea breeze developing mid day will result in the lift needed to initiate convection across the east coast metro and lake region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Even though we aren`t currently outlooked, wouldn`t be surprised if there are a few strong to marginally severe storms tomorrow with strong winds and large hail the primary threats. With more of a southerly flow in place, expect high temps to be a few degrees higher with most locations topping out in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 90s possible over interior SW FL. These temps with the increase in humidity will result in heat indices around 100 degrees during the afternoon into early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 As we move into the latter half of the weekend, a mid-level ridge will build back over the area as the mid-level trough moves into the Western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough to our NE will lead to S/SW wind flow. With the drier mid-level air and ridging limiting convective activity on Sunday and Monday, there will still be potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-35%) along the east coast and interior due to the S/SW wind flow and sufficient low level moisture. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will once again soar to near record values over the east coast metro areas as they warm into the low to mid 90s. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s across the interior & southwest. With warmer dew points, heat index values have the potential to reach 100 to 105 across a majority of South Florida. Moving into Tuesday and mid-week, the mid-level ridge will break down as a trough begins to digs into the eastern US. With this trough, a frontal boundary will move across the southeastern US with models indication that it will reach the FL Peninsula by Wednesday. However, uncertainty continues in the long term as the latest guidance remains in disagreement regarding how far south the front pushes and if it holds together by the time it gets into South FL. Regardless, moisture advection will slowly increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm development will be primarily sea breeze driven with the best chances over the interior and east coast. Afternoon high temperatures continue to rise into the lower to mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and the upper 90s across the interior sections. With additional moisture moving into the region, heat indices may continue to range between 100 and 105 across most areas, with potential for localized areas rising above 105. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the morning hours. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected mid-late afternoon at the east coast terminals, with the peak window for impacts generally from 19-02Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend SErly at the east coast sites (outside of thunderstorm outflows) and westerly at KAPF this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local waters today. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds will become west southwest in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds across all local waters will gradually become more southerly over the upcoming weekend and then south to southwesterly during the early to middle portion of next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the local waters each day. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today and into the first part of the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1200 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s. 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA: 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 78 93 79 / 60 50 20 10 West Kendall 94 73 94 76 / 50 30 20 10 Opa-Locka 94 76 94 79 / 60 50 20 10 Homestead 92 76 92 78 / 40 30 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 91 79 / 50 50 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 76 93 79 / 50 50 20 10 Pembroke Pines 95 77 96 79 / 50 50 20 10 West Palm Beach 93 75 94 76 / 50 50 20 10 Boca Raton 93 76 94 78 / 50 50 20 10 Naples 91 76 91 77 / 10 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...Carr