335
FXUS62 KMHX 170153
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
953 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds overhead to end the work-week with
another unsettled weekend ahead with low pressure system
impacting the area into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Thursday...No major changes with the evening update.
Winds have decoupled across the majority of the area and
satellite imagery shows minimal cloud cover. With ample surface
moisture from yesterday`s rain, the stage is set for patchy fog
to develop, especially south of HWY 64.

Previous Discussion...As of 1515 Thursday...No changes required
to the near term with SFC low and its associated fronts
continuing to push further offshore to the ENE as we settle into
the post- frontal air mass and upper ridging building in from
the W. Sea breeze develops in the afternoon, but doesn`t
progress too far inland due to the NW flow. There will be some
convergence along the boundary which could lead to some showers
popping up along the seabreeze and moving SEwardly back toward
the coast and offshore this afternoon. However, moisture in the
column is confined to the low levels and NWerly downsloping flow
aloft should act to inhibit any stronger updrafts. Dry forecast
will be continued. MaxTs ~80 away from the immediate coast, low
70s OBX, mid-upper 70s Crystal Coast Beaches. Ridging continues
to approach from the S and W overnight which will lead to
clearing skies and calming winds away from the coast. Sern zones
currently forecast to see some patchy fog develop in the early
morning hours with clearing skies and decoupling winds allowing
decent rad cooling and ample SFC moisture from the rainfall
we`ve had the last two days providing the fuel. Currently not
expecting widespread dense fog, but select sheltered spots could
see periods of dense fog. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s
for beaches. If we end up clearing completely overnight, lows
might be dive deeper into the 50s and the fog footprint would be
larger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 1515 Thursday...Ridging crests over the area Friday but
shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in
initiating a few showers during the afternoon, generally along
the seabreeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be meager
with MUCAPE less than 1kJ/kg and the ridging aloft keeping
kinematics less than impressive, in turn limiting any severe
potential, however a rumble of thunder or two can`t be ruled
out. MaxTs a few ticks warmer than Thursday for inland zones,
low 80s most. Cooler Ts expected along the coast where marine
air will be felt as the seabreeze penetrates further inland than
Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Regarding the unsettled weather this
weekend, deterministic, ensemble, and analog guidance all show
at least a weak to modest signal for severe weather, especially
on Saturday. The signal isn`t as strong on Sunday, but is still
present. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked all of
Eastern NC in a "Marginal" risk of severe weather for Saturday,
and this seems reasonable given all of the above. Of note, one
potential complicating factor is the evolution of a warm front
Friday night into Saturday, which could support an increased
coverage of showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning. If this
occurs, it could have an impact on how much instability can
develop later in the day and into the evening. The key message
here is to be aware of the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms on Saturday. We`ll continue to refine the risk
area and potential hazards in the coming couple of days.

Previous Discussion...High pressure will be across the area
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this
weekend. High pressure builds back in toward the middle of next
week.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure
system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern
stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region
Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across
the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then
transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes
across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter
half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are
differences among the models with the evolution, timing and
track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the
region through much of the period. Beneficial rainfall is
expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1.5-2"
with locally higher amounts possible.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper low slowly slides southward
early next week with high pressure building across the Mid-
Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers into Monday but
expect dry conditions into Wednesday. A mid level shortwave and
attendant cold front approaches the area late Wednesday but
moisture looks limited at this time with deep layer westerly
flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...Pred VFR through the period. The best
chance for overnight fog development continues to be
southwestern terminals (OAJ), which is where the most rain has
been received over the past 24 hours and where winds are
expected to be the lightest. Continued to carry a mention of VFR
MIFG for EWN and ISO but confidence is low in how far north and
east the fog will penetrate. After the fog burns off after
sunrise, VFR conditions will return. A small disturbance in the
flow will increase cloud cover and lower CIGs to around 4-5kft
tomorrow afternoon, which could support some showers and a few
rumbles of thunder.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday but
could see isolated showers during the afternoon bringing brief
periods of sub-VFR. A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions
Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1515 Thursday...Seas continue subsiding from 2-4ft
presently becoming 2-3ft overnight. Winds currently light and
variable. Overnight, winds S of Hatt become predominantly Werly
10-15kt with Nern waters seeing NNEerly winds around 10-12kt.
These Nerly winds continue working S down the coast to become
Nerly 5-10kt S of Hatt, Nerly 10-15G20kt N of Hatt in the early
morning hours. Seas respond to winds Fri becoming 2-4ft from N
to S, 3-5ft over outer central waters.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...High pressure will be over the waters
Friday with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas around 2-4
ft, but could be locally higher near the Gulf Stream. A complex
low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through
Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance
for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through
Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best
opportunity for SCA conditions will develop sometime Sunday and
continue into early next week with N to NE winds as low pressure
deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the
models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow
updates as details come into focus.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/CEB/OJC
MARINE...SK/CEB