Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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081 FXUS62 KMLB 120157 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 957 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Scattered to numerous showers continue over south central and south Florida, this evening, as a stationary front remains north of the area. Invest 90L can clearly be seen spinning just off of the coast from Tampa Bay on both radar and satellite imagery as of around 10pm. NHC continues to give this feature only a 20% chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days as it crosses the Florida peninsula and enters the western Atlantic. While showers have largely diminished north of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County this evening, models forecast 90L to finally move onshore from the GOMEX shortly after midnight, then move northwestward across the peninsula overnight and through Wednesday morning. As the center of the low approaches the area, CAMs support an increase in showers late tonight from south to north. A few lightning storms will remain possible. Will need to watch any convection near the center of the low for enhanced rainfall amounts, which have already been observed along the coast of Sarasota and Manatee Counties this afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat across the area overnight, especially in areas that see slow moving cells or multiple rounds of stronger showers and storms. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2", with locally higher amounts possible, could lead to minor flooding overnight. Morning lows are forecast in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 High coverage of -RA/SHRA persists this evening, becoming heavier at times and leading to VIS reductions. Showers will continue overnight, especially from around MLB southward. Some TS will be possible, but confidence is low. Higher confidence in reduced CIGs to around 010-020 overnight. Wednesday, high coverage of showers continues, with increasing thunder chances in the afternoon. CAMs suggest a sea breeze collision late in the afternoon over the interior and into the Treasure Coast. Have included TEMPOs after around 20Z to account for this. Some improvement to CIGs is forecast after sunrise Wednesday. However, MVFR CIGs look to return after sunset Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Tonight...Boating conditions will be poor to hazardous across the coastal waters. Went with a short fused Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast for the remainder of the afternoon through much of tonight. S/SW winds at buoy 41009 have been reaching around 20 knots already and some guidance indicates that speeds around 20 to 25 knot will continue into tonight. Over the nearshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast, as well as offshore of Volusia County, small craft should exercise caution for wind speeds up to 15-20 knots. Across the nearshore waters of Volusia County wind speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to build up to 3-5 feet, with occasional seas up to 6 feet offshore. Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 10-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, they should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 87 74 88 / 50 70 50 70 MCO 75 85 74 86 / 60 80 60 80 MLB 73 87 74 86 / 70 80 70 80 VRB 73 87 73 87 / 70 80 70 80 LEE 75 88 76 89 / 50 80 50 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 50 80 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 60 80 60 80 FPR 73 87 72 87 / 70 90 70 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Leahy