081
FXUS62 KMLB 120157
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
957 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Scattered to numerous showers continue over south central and
south Florida, this evening, as a stationary front remains north
of the area. Invest 90L can clearly be seen spinning just off of
the coast from Tampa Bay on both radar and satellite imagery as of
around 10pm. NHC continues to give this feature only a 20% chance
of tropical formation over the next 7 days as it crosses the
Florida peninsula and enters the western Atlantic.

While showers have largely diminished north of the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee County this evening, models forecast 90L to
finally move onshore from the GOMEX shortly after midnight, then
move northwestward across the peninsula overnight and through
Wednesday morning. As the center of the low approaches the area,
CAMs support an increase in showers late tonight from south to
north. A few lightning storms will remain possible. Will need to
watch any convection near the center of the low for enhanced
rainfall amounts, which have already been observed along the coast
of Sarasota and Manatee Counties this afternoon and evening.
Nonetheless, locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat across
the area overnight, especially in areas that see slow moving cells
or multiple rounds of stronger showers and storms. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1-2", with locally higher amounts possible,
could lead to minor flooding overnight. Morning lows are forecast
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

High coverage of -RA/SHRA persists this evening, becoming heavier
at times and leading to VIS reductions. Showers will continue
overnight, especially from around MLB southward. Some TS will be
possible, but confidence is low. Higher confidence in reduced CIGs
to around 010-020 overnight. Wednesday, high coverage of showers
continues, with increasing thunder chances in the afternoon. CAMs
suggest a sea breeze collision late in the afternoon over the
interior and into the Treasure Coast. Have included TEMPOs after
around 20Z to account for this. Some improvement to CIGs is
forecast after sunrise Wednesday. However, MVFR CIGs look to
return after sunset Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Tonight...Boating conditions will be poor to hazardous across the
coastal waters. Went with a short fused Small Craft Advisory for
the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast for
the remainder of the afternoon through much of tonight. S/SW winds
at buoy 41009 have been reaching around 20 knots already and some
guidance indicates that speeds around 20 to 25 knot will continue
into tonight. Over the nearshore waters of Brevard County and the
Treasure Coast, as well as offshore of Volusia County, small
craft should exercise caution for wind speeds up to 15-20 knots.
Across the nearshore waters of Volusia County wind speeds will be
around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to build up to 3-5 feet,
with occasional seas up to 6 feet offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Subtle shifts
in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of
uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure
system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the
surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 10-15
kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or
SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will
depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better
confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT
lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could
become poor, they should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4
ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  70
MCO  75  85  74  86 /  60  80  60  80
MLB  73  87  74  86 /  70  80  70  80
VRB  73  87  73  87 /  70  80  70  80
LEE  75  88  76  89 /  50  80  50  70
SFB  75  88  74  88 /  50  80  50  80
ORL  75  87  75  88 /  60  80  60  80
FPR  73  87  72  87 /  70  90  70  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Leahy