861
FXUS62 KMLB 110137
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
937 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop on lingering outflow
boundaries from earlier convection as of around 930pm. Locally
heavy rainfall has already been observed over portions of
northeastern Orange and southeastern Seminole Counties, where
rainfall totals have reached up to 5-5.5" in some spots.

Rain chances will continue overnight, with CAMs supporting
repeated rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms. PoPs
overnight generally 40-60%, with the highest coverage expected
south of Orlando. A brief lull in activity will be possible after
midnight, before coverage increases once again towards daybreak.
Gusty winds and lightning strikes will remain possible in any
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in areas
that see multiple rounds of showers and storms or persistent
cells, as has been the case in Orange and Seminole Counties this
evening. Precipitation and high cloud cover will keep overnight
lows in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

-Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop through late
afternoon and this evening, with a few stronger storms possible.

-Higher coverage of showers and storms from Tuesday onward this week
will produce rounds of heavy rainfall and lead to the potential for
localized flooding.

-Increased cloud cover and rainfall will lead to a drop in maximum
temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs near to below
normal.

Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms will continue to increase in
coverage through the remainder of the afternoon, becoming scattered
to numerous. Some stronger storms will still be possible, especially
with storm/boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze.
Main threat will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. This activity
will largely diminish or push offshore through late evening, but
there will be some lingering shower and storm chances overnight, as
deep tropical moisture continues to lift northeast across the area.
CAM guidance seems to indicate there will at least be somewhat of
a break initially, but then showers and storms begin to increase
once again late in the night toward daybreak Tuesday, pushing
east- northeast into the area. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible with any persistent or repeated
rounds of storms. Mostly cloudy conditions forecast overnight,
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday...Models show an area of low pressure developing
along a weak front north of the area early Tuesday, with this
feature shifting eastward in the morning. The pressure gradient
tightens between this feature and subtropical high pressure
southeast of Florida, with low level S/SW winds increasing and
pulling deeper tropical moisture northward into the area. PW values
rise up to 2.2-2.5 inches, with moisture remaining elevated across
the area through late week as the weak front remains just north or
begins to push into northern portions of east central Florida. Rain
chances remain high through the period (PoPs up to 80-90 percent)
each day, with repeated rounds of showers and storms possible. Main
storm threats will be gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy downpours.

Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to
4 inches will continue to be possible each day. Forecasted total
amounts for Tuesday through Friday night have been nudged down
only slightly, with amounts of 4-7 inches from Osceola/southern
Brevard counties southward and 2-3 inches across northern portions
of east central FL. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a
Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across all of ECFL
through the period. While convection will be enhanced during the
daytime period, there may be some continuation of showers and
storms through the overnight hours. Very dry antecedent
conditions with moderate to severe drought conditions in place
will initially be able to handle some of the heavier rainfall, but
localized urban and poor drainage flooding concerns will continue
to grow through mid week onward, depending on overall amounts.

Increased cloud cover and greater coverage of showers and storms
will allow maximum temperatures to drop to near to below normal
values, ranging from the mid to upper 80s for most areas. The moist
humid airmass will maintain mild overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

Saturday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) Guidance has further
diverged and further decreased forecast confidence going into the
weekend. GFS develops a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico,
while the ECM develops little more than a wave. This results in a
much drier solution from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture
across the area and continues rain chances. Official forecast
reflects a compromise blend between the two, keeping relatively
high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through
the weekend, but changes are likely as we drawn nearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and storms continue, generally from around MCO/TIX
northward, developing along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries
from earlier convection. Will see this activity, and the
associated TEMPOs diminish through around 1Z. Then, VCSH for most
of the overnight especially from MLB southward. -SHRA, with MVFR
VIS and CIG reductions will begin along the Treasure Coast near
sunrise, spreading northward through the morning hours, before
continuing for much of the area through the day on Tuesday.
Embedded lightning storms will be possible, mainly during the
afternoon, so VCTS has been included. CIGs BKN030-020 are
forecast area-wide by 12Z and will persist through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as
southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of
Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots
as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered
to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue
through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible.

Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains
fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly
Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as
high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase
up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will
generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the
period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High
cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze.
Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft
Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as
greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the
mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will
keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of
drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive
heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning
strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that
could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  89 /  40  80  50  80
MCO  76  85  74  86 /  50  80  50  80
MLB  75  86  73  87 /  60  90  70  90
VRB  74  86  72  87 /  60  90  70  90
LEE  76  89  76  90 /  40  70  40  80
SFB  76  88  75  89 /  40  80  50  80
ORL  77  86  75  88 /  50  80  50  80
FPR  74  86  72  87 /  60  90  70  90

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Leahy